Inside the paranoid mind of Vladimir Putin, the trigger-happy KGB bully who acts like an ‘ageing gangster from Sopranos’
IF you want to understand what goes on in Vladimir Putin’s mind you have to go back to when the Berlin Wall came down in 1989.
At the time Putin was a major in ruthless spy agency the KGB, based in Dresden, East Germany.
His entire world — which had seen swathes of Eastern Europe fall under the grip of Communism and the Soviet Empire — was collapsing around him.
When jubilant crowds tried to storm the Dresden KGB bureau, reports later suggested Putin was waiting with a handgun.
According to an eyewitness speaking to state television channel Russia Today, Putin warned the crowd that the building was Soviet territory and threatened to shoot anyone who entered.
Whether the story is true or not, it chimes with how he is encircling Ukraine — also once part of the old Soviet regime — with all the firepower he can muster.
Putin is an old-fashioned gangster fuelled by paranoia and a bully’s desire to frighten. The Russian President is orchestrating a protection racket by massing thousands of troops on Ukraine’s borders.
In order to run a protection racket the first thing you have to do is make whoever you want to protect — in this case Ukraine — scared. Then you try and make sure the victim (Ukraine) does not trust the police — who in this situation are Nato.
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Craving chaos
So Putin’s actions are all about making people think Nato is divided and will not fight — and that you are better off being with the gangster for protection.
He is far from the war-gaming tactical genius portrayed in some quarters. Despite his actions over the last decade — including seizing Crimea from Ukraine in 2014 and stoking separatists in the east of the country — Nato has got stronger.
The alliance is spending more on defence and is more united than in 2014. In many ways Putin has revitalised an organisation he loathes. Back then most Ukrainians were relatively pro-Russian and quite happy to have a relationship with Moscow.
Today most want nothing to do with him, are frightened of the Kremlin and want to join the EU and Nato. This is a complete reversal of Russia’s interests and it is all Putin’s fault.
Where he is succeeding is the easy bit — he is creating chaos. Bad leaders create chaos to make it difficult for their enemies to unite against them.
But chaos only works for a bit. What ends up happening is that people get fed up with it. You cannot plan for the future, you cannot invest.
It is bad for everyone except a very selfish leader — in this case Putin. And so what ends up happening is that people look for different options, which is why now Ukraine wants to join Nato.
Another window into Putin’s mind is the ridiculous 20ft table that divided him and French president Emmanuel Macron during a recent meeting.
Another window into Putin’s mind is the ridiculous 20ft table that divided him and French president Emmanuel Macron during a recent meeting.
It had the effect of diminishing Macron but I believe the main reason he did it is because he is a germaphobe, like former US President Donald Trump.
Macron had wisely refused a Covid PCR test because he did not want Russia to have access to his DNA.
The ludicrous table showed the world Putin’s out-of-control paranoia.
But, as the old adage goes, just because you are paranoid does not mean they are not out to get you.
Putin runs a petrostate with a government attached. Like an ageing gangster in TV series The Sopranos, he is terrified of getting bumped off by a younger thug.
If you were the dictator of Russia, you would be paranoid too. So what happens next? By the time you read this, bombs could be falling on Ukrainian capital Kyiv, but do not be surprised if the military stand-off is still holding.
My best guess is that Putin will try to keep us dangling. Pull back a few tanks, send in a few helicopters, anything to keep us off balance.
He craves uncertainty. His best interest, he believes, is to demonstrate that Nato allies are splintering.
Dirty money
So he wants to show that Britain is separated from its European friends, that France has got its own agenda, and that Germany is more interested in energy and money.
Putin thinks he has got a gambling position he likes. He can pull out tomorrow, claim victory and leave.
Or he can leave his cards on the table and see if the price he can extract from the West will rise any higher. But we do not have to play this vain bully’s game. We can show him for what he is and not embolden him.
Like all gangsters he only cares about power and the money he needs to keep it.
Britain needs to be far tougher on the Russian dirty money reaching our shores.
While Germany needs to end its reliance on Russian gas, which Putin can turn off and on at will.
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Putin wants us to believe he is restoring Soviet-era authority by menacing Ukraine. Yet, he has not learnt the lesson of the day he confronted the crowds at the KGB bureau in Dresden.
The Soviet Empire is no more. His browbeating tactics are just making Nato stronger.
