US and China heading towards ‘nuke showdown over Taiwan’ as there’s ‘no middle ground’, expert warns
THE US and China are heading toward a nuclear showdown over Taiwan as both countries appear unlikely to reach a compromise over the island’s future, an expert has warned.
China has vowed to reunify the island and fears are growing that the US could be dragged into a future conflict involving Beijing and Taipei as wargames intensify.
Ethan Paul, of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, told The Sun that Taiwan is the “key piece” in President Xi’s “rejuvenation” project and believes Beijing doesn't consider itself a “great power” unless unification isn’t achieved.
He said: “China has this concept of rejuvenation. A large part of the idea is redeeming the history of colonialism in China – not only by Western powers but also by Japan.
“If China cannot fulfill unification, then China is in fact not the great power that it seeks to be and is still under the thumb of the west.”
He also fears that the US and Beijing will be unable to strike a compromise over the island's future, adding "there's no middle ground" as Beijing either unifies Taiwan or it doesn't.
Wargames in the South China Sea have intensified, and China has already plowed more than one trillion yuan (£151bn) into military spending this year – a 6.8 percent increase.
Beijing appears to be beefing up three airbases near Taiwan while state-controlled media warned islanders of a pending “doomsday” scenario.
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Dozens of warplanes have been buzzing the island's air space in recent weeks and mass beach landing operations have been carried out in exercises that are widely seen as rehearsals for - or at least threats of - a full-scale invasion.
Beijing allegedly tested a hypersonic nuclear missile in August, which reportedly sent intelligence officials in Washington “scrambling” as they were “caught off guard”.
As China advances its military capability, the US is piling billions into hypersonic missiles development as Washington continues to reaffirm its dominance.
Paul said: “We’re just on the first level of what’s going to be an increasingly tall house of cards. We’re going to have better weapons pointing deeper and deeper into each other heads.
"Inevitably, there will be a crisis – very likely over Taiwan – and this whole house of cards could quickly come crashing down.
'HOUSE OF CARDS'
“I’m afraid we’re heading towards some sort of nuclear showdown over Taiwan which is where we’ll see continuous developments in China’s ability to credibly threaten nuclear escalation against the United States."
He speculated that a future conflict could be politically motivated, triggered by “accidents or misperceptions”.
Beijing remains behind the US arsenal even if it doubled its nuclear warheads over the next decade, but warned that it is catching up, the expert says.
Despite the wargames and the rhetoric ramping up from both Beijing and Taipei, an invasion of Taiwan doesn’t seem imminent.
But the expert warned that a “devastating” future conflict could materialize in three particular circumstances.
Paul speculated that a war could break out over a “misperception” crisis, sparked by unilateral action by either China or Taiwan.
He suggested that a future Republican administration could “put their thumb in Beijing’s eye” and end America’s 40-year policy of strategic ambiguity. There is no evidence at this time that the US policy towards Taiwan will change.
'DEVASTATING' CONFLICT
And, Beijing could try a non-coercive approach to unify Taiwan as they may “gradually increase the pressure” on officials in Taipei.
Paul said this option is most preferable to China as it’s likely to “help Beijing’s image on the international stage and avoids a potential counter-insurgency operation”.
Sam Armstrong, of the Henry Jackson Society, previously told The Sun that the US and China have been locked in a “Cold War” the last three years, but Paul believes Beijing has seen itself in such a scenario for three decades.
The collapse of the Soviet Union prompted Beijing to redefine its foreign policy vision, according to the expert.
He said: “When the Soviet Union collapsed, China looked out to the world and needed to redefine the purpose of its foreign policy.
"It saw American power and order as the fundamental threat to its continued economic rise, to the growth of its military influence, and ultimately the safety of the Chinese Communist Party.”
Paul thinks the political class has become "inebriated" by the dominance that the country has exercised over the last 30 years.
He said: “American strategists and policymakers don’t understand the dilemma that we're creating in Asia.
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“American foreign policy and establishment politics are in a deep period of flux and uncertainty after the global war on terror and the failed wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.”
When asked if the Cold War tensions could turn hot, Paul doesn’t think there’s a “logical end game” in sight as China will continue bolstering its military while Washington may seek to limit Beijing's technological might and its influence on the global stage.
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