US and China’s ‘new Cold War’ is set ‘to escalate over next 2 years’ and ‘conflict will be hard to avoid after failures’
AMERICA’S “new Cold War” with China could escalate over the next two years as a battle over status and identity may be "hard to avoid", according to an expert.
Beijing’s relationship with Washington has “deteriorated dramatically” over the last two years as the origins of the pandemic remain a mystery.
Peter Gries, a Chinese politics professor at Manchester University, thinks China’s management of the pandemic has helped create a new ideological dimension to the US’ relationship with Beijing.
He branded this a "warm peace or a new Cold War" as countries continue to grapple with the choice of "authoritarian" lockdowns and personal freedoms.
He said: “The Chinese government was quite draconian in its lockdown. They were aggressive in making the message clear to the domestic and international public.
"It's a question of authoritarianism versus capitalism."
Gries fears the battle over status and ideology, rather than a military conflict, between the US and China could "burst" forward within the next two years.
He said: "The most dangerous area is ideological and especially nationalism. By definition, there can only be one number one.
"Status is inherently zero-sum and if people cannot learn to view each other as equals and they instead see the world as a pecking-order hierarchy, then it's going to be much harder to avoid conflict."
'ENGAGEMENT HAS FAILED'
There is a growing consensus among Republican and Democratic lawmakers that engagement with China has “failed”.
Barack Obama launched the “rebalance to Asia” strategy during the 2012 administration which was designed to improve alliances in the Pacific as Washington shifted its attention away from Afghanistan.
Gries said the former president’s intentions were “good” but “it was just too hard to get out of the Middle East”.
He said: “The goal was to reorient US foreign policy towards Asia but there was still too much of a mess and quagmire in the Middle East for that policy to be as successful as was originally hoped for.”
The recent “failure” perhaps may have prompted Joe Biden to be “more assertive and quick” about announcing his intention to withdraw all US troops in Afghanistan by September.
According to a poll, 76 percent of Americans have an unfavorable view of China which could prompt politicians to take tough action.
This could involve a potential diplomatic or full boycott from the 2022 Winter Olympics that is due to take place in Beijing over the alleged genocide of and Beijing’s saber-rattling over Taiwan and Hong Kong.
'PLAYING WITH FIRE'
Far-left candidates in Democratic primaries could present themselves as “progressive” by calling out China’s record on human rights while some Republicans may appeal to Americans who are anti-communist.
Gries thinks could be an issue “politicians try to take advantage” of ahead of primary campaigns and congressional battles.
Concerns have escalated asbuilding a second nuclear missile base in the desert.
The reported last month that Beijing is building more than 100 additional missile silos in the country's northwestern Gansu province.
Gries said: “There is no reason that a few more silos or nuclear warheads need to lead to conflict. A lot of this has to do with how we perceive these things and process them.”
, widely believed to be simulating assault landings on Taiwan, in a bid to demonstrate its military might.
Beijing regards Taiwan as part of its territory and has long threatened to use force to bring it under its control.
Chinese Defence Ministry spokesperson Wu Qian warned: "Those who play with fire will only burn themselves."
Around 20 naval exercises were conducted by the Chinese military in the first half of this year, according to the
Beijing vowed to invade Taiwan if it seeks independence last month, warning any move toward gaining independence would mean “war”.
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But, despite the saber-rattling, Gries remains optimistic that relations could improve as the US and China can work together on issues such as climate change and terrorism.
He said: “I don’t think there are many people on either side of the Pacific that want conflict.
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“The danger is that we fall into conflict by mistake managing the next couple of years."
