Early election would be a real disaster for Theresa May despite 10 point Tory lead in the polls
Calling an election now would expose Brexit divides and cast Theresa May as a game playing politician
THE Tories are ahead by double digits in the polls, a majority of voters think Theresa May is the best PM on offer and both Labour and Ukip are in crisis.
Little wonder some Tories are beginning to get excited about an early election.
“These circumstances are very unusual. We don’t have a functioning opposition and when was the last time we Tories were ten points ahead in government”, argues one MP who backed May for the leadership.
He claims that if she does go for it, “she’ll be in a very strong position as she’ll get a proper majority”.
He warns the alternative is “three years on a majority of 12”. But the Tories going for an early election would be a massive mistake.
First, the public have warmed to May because they see her as a no-nonsense politician, someone who just gets on with the job in front of them.
She has constantly emphasised that she knows politics isn’t a game, implying that others have treated it as such. Calling an early election would destroy that reputation.
It would look like game playing on an epic scale, a cynical move to take advantage of Labour weakness.
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This is especially true as the fixed-term Parliament Act would mean Tory MPs would have to vote no confidence in their own Government to trigger an election.
The second reason that it isn’t a good idea, is that you can never know how long a honeymoon will last.
At the moment, the voters like May. After all the drama of the past few months, her calmness is reassuring.
She’s also benefiting from the fact that no one can accuse her of being a posh boy or a member of the old boys’ network.
But public opinion can turn quickly. As one Cabinet minister warns, “Remember Gordon Brown started like this”.
Public opinion can turn quickly
Those around May are acutely aware that her honeymoon won’t last for ever.
“Things will get far more challenging soon,” says one Downing Street source, adding: “No one is so naive as to think it is going to be easy.”
Then there is, perhaps, the biggest danger — an early election would expose the Tory divides over Brexit.
At the moment, there is an uneasy Tory truce, as no one wants to start fighting over Europe again.
But May couldn’t hold an election without setting out what she means by Brexit. And as soon as she does that, she’ll disappoint one Tory tribe or another.
Those around May are clear that she is not going to the country early. “Never going to happen”, one member of her circle confidently declares. They believe that there is “no appetite” among the public for another election.
One minister who has worked with her for years tells me: “I don’t think she is going to go for it. She’s not the kind of person to change her mind.”
But if these poll leads persist, there’ll be more and more Tories urging her to go to the country and dish Labour.
May, though, must continue to resist this temptation. As she likes to say, politics isn’t a game.
- James Forsyth is political editor of The Spectator
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