Cases of Indian Covid variant in UK ’10 to 20 times HIGHER than reported’ amid fears lateral flow tests won’t detect it
CASES of the Indian Covid variant could be up to 10 to 20 times higher, scientists have confirmed, amid fears rapid tests may not be able to detect it.
The Health Secretary said yesterday that 103 cases of the Indian variant had been found in the UK.
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But MPs part of the All-Party Parliamentary Group (APPG) on Coronavirus were told by scientists today that the figure is likely to be at least 10 times higher.
This is because only around ten to 15 per cent of positive swabs in the UK are sent to laboratories where they are scanned for variants.
The other 85 to 90 per cent are not checked.
Chair of the APPG MP Layla Moran said: “Can I just clarify, the likely number of cases of the Indian variant in the UK currently, did I understand that right that if we have 103 cases detected, we actually think it is much much greater than that? 10-20 times greater??”
Deenan Pilla, a professor of virology at University College London and a member of Independent SAGE, said: “Yes that's exactly right.
“Because there has not been any targeted testing for this. These are within the spectrum of tests sequenced.
“I think more recently, as infection rates have come down in the UK, a greater proportion are being sequenced... So i think it [the number of tests sequenced] is probably higher than that.
"But it certainly won't be all of those cases.
“Although the numbers remain small, a PHE document this morning has identified more than that, and there is a big increase even though we are talking about small numbers.”
He added that most cases had been classified as imported into the UK from India with links to international travel.
But it's “clear it's very difficult to distinguish whether an infection is caught within the UK or imported”.
He added: “So we should be expecting an increase in those infections.”
It is not yet known if the Indian variant can spread faster, or if it is behind the huge surge in infections in India, where up to 250,000 cases are being reported per day.
Dr Gabriel Scally, a visiting professor of public health at the University of Bristol and a member of the Independent Sage committee, said the UK has an issue of “continually trying to play catch up” with variants.
The PCR Covid test, used by the NHS, cannot reveal if someone has been infected with the variants from India, South Africa or Brazil.
It has to be genetically sequenced in laboratories which can take weeks, therefore the true number of current cases of variants is never known.
Dr Scally said: “That’s a losing game, this virus moves and changes so fast.”
Prof Pillay questioned whether surge testing - currently being used in London to find cases of the South African variant - has limited use.
He said: "We could have a situation where four weeks after a variant has been identified, there is a bit of a naive assumption that testing should happen in the postcodes in London around where it was first identified.
"I don't know how anyone else who lives in a place like London - you don't limit yourself to moving within one postcode."
The virtual briefing held today gave MPs the chance to discuss Covid variants, the easing of restrictions, and border controls with scientists.
Experts also explained how the lateral flow Covid tests - which everyone in England is recommended to do twice a week - may not pick up cases of the virus caused by new variants.
The tests are already known to be less accurate than PCR tests on the original Covid strain.
MP Ms Morgan asked if it was possible the lateral flow tests would work the same on new variants, or worse.
Lawrence Young, professor of molecular oncology at the University of Warwick, said there isn’t anybody that currently knows the answer to that.
He added: “I think it's very likely some of these variants will not be detected as sensitivity, or specifically. But I guess we just don't have the data.”
Lateral flow tests are part of the Prime Minister's plan to get the UK back to normality, as the tests offer a result within 30 minutes.
They are being piloted as a way of safely entering mass events or venues, such as nightclubs or football matches.
But experts said today that it would be "inevitable" that cases of the virus would slip through the net because the test is not always accurate.
Professor Jon Deeks, who leads the Biostatistics, Evidence Synthesis and Test Evaluation Research Group at the Institute of Applied Health Research, said: "The idea of using lateral flow tests, or any test which can only detect a proportion of cases, to allow people into mass events, will inevitably allow people into those events who have the disease and can spread it.
"We only need to go back to the where they were using the Abbott test… Perhaps slightly better performing than the one we have in the UK.
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"We know the story there; I think it was 48 cases including the President and First Lady."
Experts said the Government should focus its attention on financially supporting people to self isolate in order to crack down on the virus, rather than testing people without symptoms in the community.
Scientists slam “red list” as “nonsense” as infections can occur in airports
Scientists today branded the breaking down of countries into red, amber or green lists as “nonsense”.
During the All-Party Parliamentary Group on Coronavirus, MPs discussed the usefulness of the Government’s border control measures in controlling imported cases of Covid.
Dr Gabriel Scally, a visiting professor of public health at the University of Bristol and a member of the Independent Sage committee, said: “I don't believe in reds and greens, I believe in quarantine. There is no such thing as a half-quarantine. You can't do it by half - either do it property or don't do it all, which of course has been the UK’s position for far too long.
“We don't know where people start their journey, where they’ve transmitted, the transport they used to get to and from places.
“I think this is a particular problem in the holiday season, as we are heading into, with people going to holiday destinations which will be an international mixing pot by definition.
“So whether a country is green or red to me, as a public health doctor, I am not interested in that. I am interested in isolating people who come from abroad at this time.”
Deenan Pillay, also a member of Independent SAGE and professor of virology at University College London, said people will queue for “hours and hours” in the immigration hall at Heathrow airport.
“And then they go off to their amber or red quarantine, it makes a nonsense of things,” he said.
Lucy Moreton, a professional officer for the Immigration Services Union (ISU), which represents border immigration and customs staff in the UK, was quizzed on the severity of Covid risks at UK’s airports.
She said: “We know it's not possible to segregate people from red, amber green [locations]. They are going to mix, it’s a confined space. Yes there is air conditioning, but it's a confined space.
“Even if we separated that one risky passenger out at some point in their journey, my understanding transmission could occur at any point [in their journey]. So we are not truly isolating that risk.”
Lord Strasburger said the process of going through border control sounded like a “breeding ground” of coronavirus, making the quarantine process pointless.
Mr Moreton, who said border control queues could be up to three hours long, said: “Right now, very much so. When it's so slow, and the queues are so bad, then absolutely there is a significant risk both to our members, the border control staff, and the travellers standing in those queues.
“If you have someone arriving from a country where you don't have to do hotel quarantine, who has managed to catch the virus from someone who does, you may have isolated that individual who went into a hotel - you've found them and their contacts.
“But the person who bumped shoulders with in the airport, who just vanishes into the wild blue yonder, you've got no way of knowing who that is.”
Prof Pillay, who described Ms Moreton’s comments as “extraordinary”, said: “Whilst we are getting a bit fixated on the green, red amber zones around the world, it seems travels is the greatest risk full stop.”