US general says there is a ‘low to medium risk of Russian invasion of Ukraine in weeks’ as American warships turn back
A US military chief has warned of the risk of a Russian invasion of Ukraine in the coming weeks, as Vladimir Putin continues shoring up troops, artillery and tanks at the border.
There is a “low to medium risk” of Putin taking the next step and invading Ukraine in the next few weeks, cautioned the head of US forces in Europe, General Tod Wolters.
He was giving evidence to the Senate Armed Services Committee in Washington when he was asked about the risk of invasion in that timeframe.
The general insisted the chances were “low to medium”, adding that it would depend on a number of factors but, based on the current trajectory and disposition of Russian forces, that likelihood would begin to ‘wane’.
The Pentagon has declined to detail its assessment on the size and composition of those troops, referring reporters to Moscow.
But the White House did disclose that Russia has more troops on Ukraine's eastern border than at any time since 2014, when it annexed Crimea and backed separatist territory seizures.
Asked by a lawmaker to estimate the chances of an invasion in the next few weeks, General Wolters said: "Low to medium."
Pressed to explain whether that risk would change after that period, Wolters kept his cards close, saying: "The answer is, it depends."
"And I would have to take each and every second of the day from this point till tomorrow to give you a different answer," he said.
If the current trajectory stayed the same, however, Wolters estimated the risk of an invasion could decrease.
"My sense is, with the trend that I see right now, that the likelihood of an occurrence will start to wane," he said.
Ukraine and Russia have traded blame over a spike in violence in the conflict in eastern Ukraine, where Ukrainian troops have battled Russian-backed forces in a conflict that Kyiv says has killed 14,000 people since 2014.
Tensions are escalating as earlier Putin blocked all foreign warships from entering the waters of the Kerch Strait after US president Joe Biden sent two Navy battleships to the region but called them off.
The Kremlin had earlier warned US warships to stay well away from Crimea “for their own good”, calling their deployment in the Black Sea a provocation designed to test Russian nerves.
White House officials decided not to send the ships to avoid needlessly escalating the situation with Russia over the Ukraine, a US defence official told .
Kiev earlier accused Moscow of 'openly' threatening Ukraine with 'destruction' by stationing 80,000 troops along its eastern border - with thousands more arriving by the day - as it called on western allies to intervene.
Dmytro Kuleba, the country's foreign minister, warned of “very painful consequences” if Putin invades as he said “words are not enough” and allies would need to provide practical support.
He spoke following a meeting with the foreign ministers of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia - NATO allies in the region - saying “the four of us condemn the exacerbation of the situation by Russia”.
“The world is on the side of Ukraine and international law, and this is one of the elements of restraining Russia from reckless actions,” he added.
The Russian leader has reportedly now moved tens of thousands of troops and heavy military equipment to the border with Ukraine, prompting a phone call from President Biden to tell the Russian leader to stand down.
Expert Dr Jade McGlynn, director of research at the Henry Jackson Society, told the Sun Online Putin is threatening to invade Ukraine as he looks to reassert Russia's "superpower" status.
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Dr McGlynn insists the build-up of troops and arms in eastern Ukraine is Putin "showing off" and doubts the Russian strongman would risk a full-scale conflict.
She said: "Putin would rather manipulate and fool around than go into full-on war.
"War is a big risk. This is more about showing off. And showing Biden 'don't think you can come in and try and speak down to Russia and try and put Russia in its place because Russia is a global power.”