NHS in London told to plan for ‘possible Covid surge later in 2021’, leaked docs reveal
THE NHS in London has been told to prepare for a third wave of the coronavirus later in 2021.
From this month, bosses will need to start planning for the “possible surge” of cases - modelled to peak around July or August.
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“[The] purpose of the critical care de-surge plan [is to] ensure that the… bed base can expand safely in the event of a 3rd covid surge and/or other major incident/event.”
Third wave on the cards
Another wave of cases and deaths is inevitable even if the lifting of lockdown were delayed for six or nine months, Prime Minister Boris Johnson said when announcing the cautious plan to normality.
Modelling given to the PM by Sage - the government scientific advisory group - showed that even with a slow unlocking, another wave would occur, killing up to 80,000 people.
The severity of it would depend on the uptake of the vaccine, and how well the vaccine works to prevent spread of the virus, as well as severe disease and death.
Yesterday, Dr Mary Ramsay, Public Health England's head of immunisation, said Covid vaccines may be stopping the spread of the virus “almost completely”.
A proportion of the population will either refuse the vaccine or fall through the gaps.
This group of vulnerable people will be sizable enough for the virus to cause another surge in cases, given that all restrictions, including social distancing, are to be scrapped by June.
The unlocking of society is planned to be “irreversible”.
There is also the threat of new variants of the virus, including those from South Africa and Brazil.
These strains have some ability to evade immunity built from prior infection or vaccines that have been developed based on the “original” Covid strains.
Matt Hancock said that there may be a need for a third Covid-19 vaccination dose over autumn against new variants.
The Health Secretary told the Commons on Tuesday: “Now, we know for sure that we seek to vaccinate with two doses every adult in the UK, there may well be a need for a third vaccination over the autumn against variants and there is currently a clinical trial considering the vaccination of under-18s.”
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Officials say the current vaccines, from AstraZeneca and Pfizer, should still work to prevent most severe disease and death caused by dominant strains in the UK.
And if a new variant emerges that renders the vaccines useless, ministers say jabs can be rapidly tweaked.