Covid patients in hospital expected to HALVE in a month and cases falling fast as tide begins to turn against killer bug
THE number of Covid patients in English hospitals is expected to drop by more than half over the next month, it has been reported.
Hospital admissions and deaths are predicted to fall to October levels, according to estimates given to No 10 by government advisers.
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Latest data available shows 24,352 people were in hospital with coronavirus across the UK as of February 10.
In England, the figure stood at 22,067 on February 9.
Meanwhile new projections drawn up by advisers on the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) committee in charge of modelling suggest the number of Covid patients in hospital will fall to about 9,000 by mid-March.
The number of daily hospital admissions will drop from 1,531 to about 500, according to the modelling seen by The Times.
And the number of deaths is expected to fall from 657 a day now to fewer than 150.
It means that within a month the three key indicators will all have returned to levels similar to October, when the second wave was starting to emerge.
CASES DROP
The official projections [not forecasts] are based on the assumption that about two million people a week are vaccinated.
But advisers are increasingly optimistic about the reopening of schools and the relaxation of other measures in April.
Professor Neil Ferguson, of Imperial College London, a key architect of the first lockdown, told Politico’s Westminster Insider podcast: “We’re in a better place than I might have anticipated a month ago.
"The lockdown has really driven down cases quite fast.
"They’re basically halving about every 17 days at the moment or so, and that means in a month’s time — the prime minister’s talked about potentially reopening schools, we might have some bandwidth to do that, at least primary schools.”
His comments come as another 15,114 infections were recorded across Britain today - a 20 per cent decrease compared with the 19,114 infections reported this time last week.
The UK’s Covid R rate also fell below one nationwide for the first time since last July.
Scientists said the official R rate is between 0.7 and 0.9.
Separate data found London’s could be as low as 0.44. Around 35 per cent of people living there have already had Covid, according to University of Cambridge research.
It give fresh hope for when Boris Johnson unveils his roadmap for easing restrictions on the week of February 22.
If cases continue to fall, pubs and restaurants will be able to serve outdoors in April, The Sun revealed tonight.
A government source said: “We will hopefully be sipping pints in the spring sunshine sooner rather than later.”
Hospitality had been earmarked to reopen in May, with only takeaway pints allowed in April.
But that has now been sped up in a major boost to the blighted sector.
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A wider reopening for limited indoor mixing in pubs and restaurants is still planned for May.
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However, it is likely the “rule of six” limits and two-metre distancing will stay all summer as a compromise for the early reopening.
Meanwhile, sports fans could also be sent Covid tests along with their tickets so they can watch major events including the Euros and Wimbledon again this summer.
