TURNING THE TIDE
Covid infections plummet 23% in a week as lockdown ‘starts to work and R rate falls to 0.6 in parts of UK’
COVID cases have fallen 23 per cent in a week, according to data from the symptom tracking Zoe app.
It comes as scientists at Cambridge University said they believe the crucial R rate has dropped below one in some parts of the country, ahead of the Government's official update later today.
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A further 55,761 new infections and 1,280 fatalities were reported today.
And new cases are tumbling in every age group - except, crucially, the over-80s.
The data - from the Department of Health - suggests cases have been dwindling even before the third lockdown was implemented last month.
It's the first signs the restrictions might be starting to work to tackle the spread of a more contagious mutant strain that emerged in Kent last year.
The Cambridge team say the R rate could be as low as 0.6 in London, which has been the epicentre of the disease in recent weeks.
And their current estimate of the daily number of new infections occurring across England is 60,200, half the 117,000 per day on December 21.
Researchers at King's College London also estimate daily new infections have dropped by 23 per cent in one week across the UK, and the R rate is 0.9.
Chris Whitty warned this evening that Britain still hasn't reached the peak of the second wave.
The Chief Medical Officer said there were signs cases were begining to "level off" but warned the peak of the virus could still be weeks away.
The second wave of the pandemic has now caused more deaths than the first.
Despite the vaccine roll-out, a leading professor said restrictions may be needed until autumn.
Boris Johnson announced tonight that all travel corridors are now shut to top more mutant variants of Covid-19 from coming to the UK.
He scrapped all travel corridors for all countries, meaning anyone coming into the country from 4am on Monday will be ordered to isolate for 10 days - but people can still get a test on day 5 to be released.
It comes as:
- 55,761 new covid-19 cases and 1,280 further deaths were reported in the latest 24-hour period
- But the 'R rate' is below 1 in some regions in signs the lockdown is working
- Transport Secretary Grant Shapps said earlier that people should hesitate book their summer holidays as the nation was still in the middle of a pandemic
- The number of people in the UK to have been given a first dose of a Covid-19 vaccine is 3,234,946 as of January 14, according to Government data published on Friday - a rise of 316,694 in just a day
- Professor Chris Whitty said deaths would keep rising for at least a week - and we haven't reached the peak yet
- The PM warned of the dangers of supermarkets - and said people can get infected by touching something others have done
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For weeks, cases have been surging in almost every local authority in England, blamed on a more easily spread new coronavirus variant.
Now, official figures from Public Health England show at least half of areas are seeing improvements.
Infections are decreasing in all but some areas in the North West, South West and West Midlands, according to data in the week up to January 10.
Although there are improvements in vast parts of the country, Merseyside is fast becoming a new hotspot.
The five areas with the largest jump in cases in the past week are Knowsley, Liverpool, Sefton, Halton and St Helens.
London continues to have the highest rate of any region. However, stats show cases are rapidly dropping.
In the seven days to January 10, 864.9 cases per 100,000 people were reported in the capital - down from 1,043.9 the previous week.
Yorkshire & the Humber still has the lowest case rate at 297.2 per 100,000, down from 309.9.
Meanwhile, the new research published by Cambridge University suggests the R rate has plunged.
The R rate must be kept below 1 in order for the outbreak to shrink. It represents how many people a person with Covid passes the disease on to.
According to the Cambridge report , the R rate could be as low as 0.61 in London and 0.64 in the south-east.
Both regions were put into Tier 4 - a de facto lockdown - on December 21.
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In the south-west and north-east, the rate is between 1.1 and 1.2.
Official government estimates put the R rate at between 1 and 1.4 nationally. It will be updated later today.
Lead researcher Professor Daniela De Angelis said Tier 4 restrictions and the Christmas cut-backs "resulted in decreased transmission".
The South East and London went into Tier 4 on December 21, and cases have been falling steadily since, the team said.
However, infection remains high and the demand on hospitals is "extreme", Prof De Angelis warned.
There is a delay between the time someone gets infected, and ends up in hospital or dies. Therefore hospital numbers and deaths keep rising after the peak in cases.
The Cambridge team say they expect deaths to peak “in the coming days”.
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Data from King's College London (KCL) also shows significant improvements in the outbreak, based on data from the ZOE Covid Symptom Study app.
The researchers predict 53,528 new people are getting Covid in the UK every day, which only includes those with symptomatic disease.
This compares to 69,958 daily new symptomatic cases a week ago, a decrease of 23 per cent.
London's daily new infections has dropped from 16,800 to 10,900.
KCL said the R rate for the UK is predicted to be 0.9, but only the South East, London, East of England and Wales are below 1.
Tim Spector OBE, lead scientist on the study and professor of genetic epidemiology at KCL, said: “It's great to see case numbers falling in most regions but numbers are still worryingly high and hospitals will stay under pressure for some time yet.
"With such high numbers and growing evidence new strains are highly transmissible, things can still take a turn for the worse. We need numbers to keep falling before we make any changes to current restrictions.”
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Professor Andrew Hayward, a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), said last week's data on cases "probably relates to the lockdown measures".
However, he told Times Radio: "My concern is that what we've really got going on here is we've more or less split the population in two - those who can afford to stay at home and work and those who can't.
"I suspect what we're really seeing is a very fast decline in those who are staying at home, and either a levelling off or potentially even a continuing increase in those who are continuing to work."
The director of the University College London (UCL) Institute of Epidemiology and Health Care also said he is concerned people are leaving their home more now compared with the first lockdown.
Professor Neil Ferguson, whose modelling was integral to the first lockdown in March, said yesterday that London may have seen a plateau in hospitalisations, after the NHS in the capital reached capacity.
But other areas were seeing an increase.
Prof Ferguson told BBC Radio 4: “It looks like in London in particular and a couple of other regions in the south-east and east of England, hospital admissions may even have plateaued, though it is hard to tell if they are coming down.
“It has to be said this is not seen everywhere – both case numbers and hospital admissions are going up in many other areas."
Professor Ferguson added that the UK needs the "highest vaccine coverage possible" before rules are loosened.
He said we “must be very cautious on how we relax restrictions”, and because of this, restrictions could be in place until the autumn.
New figures reveal that, despite a huge increase in vaccinations, some regions have been far quicker to roll out the jab than others.
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According to the , the Midlands has administered 387,647 doses of the jab, with around 50 per cent - 140,147 - given to over-80s.
The region became the first in England to rollout the vaccine when Margaret Keenan received the Pfizer vaccine last month.
By contrast, London has vaccinated just 30.6 per cent of this age group so far, which is narrowly ahead of the East of England on 29.2 per cent.
Boris Johnson has vowed to make vaccines available 24/7 in a push to get another 10million people vaccinated by mid-February. The ambitious target is seen as key to lifting restrictions by the spring.
The latest figures will come as positive news to the PM as he mulls whether to tighten lockdown restrictions.
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Earlier this week, the PM told MPs at PMQs there were “early signs” that measures were working but refused to definitively rule out clamping down further.
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It is understood a fresh clampdown could include an end to click and collect shopping and no longer allowing two adults to meet up outdoors in a public place for exercise.
According to the , ministers are currently focused on increasing compliance, which they fear has waned during the lockdown, rather than tightening restrictions.
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