Official Covid R rate up AGAIN hitting 1.4 across UK as mutant strain takes hold
BRITAIN's R rate has hit 1.4 across the UK as the mutant variation of Covid-19 takes hold.
The R rate is highest in the South West where it has hit 1.5, as infections continue to surge due to the new variant.
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The current R value - the number of people an infected person will pass Covid on to - is now estimated to be between 1.0 and 1.4.
The last estimates were published by Sage on December 23 and stated the R rate had been between 1.1 and 1.3.
The Department of Health stated that the new estimates released today wouldn't account for new measures announced, including the third national lockdown.
The R rate must be kept below 1 to cause the outbreak to shrink. Above 1, and cases will continue to rise.
The coronavirus' natural R rate is around 3. But it can be squashed by cutting back on social contact.
Sir Patrick Vallance recently said that Brits should "act like you have the virus" and continue to follow the "hands, face, space" guidance set out by the government.
New data published today suggests the R rate could be as high as 1.5 in the South West.
The new variant of Covid-19 was first discovered in the South East in September and experts have now said that it has spread to the rest of the UK.
Experts warned that it could be up to 74 per cent more transmissible than other variants already in circulation.
At present the R rate in the South East sits at 1.1 to 1.4.
The East of England has the lowest range in England and is between 1.1 and 1.3.
In London the R rate sits between 1.1 and 1.4 and despite it being one of the major hotspots in the UK, data this week revealed that cases have now started to flatten off in the capital and the rest of the South.
But London Mayor Sadiq Khan this afternoon declared a major incident in the capital and said the spread of the virus is "out of control".
He said the NHS is "on the cusp of being overwhelmed" with more than 7,000 Covid patients in London hospitals — almost 2,000 more than the first peak last April.
And he warned hospitals will run out of beds in the next two weeks unless the spread is slowed down "drastically".
The new variant has now started to take hold in the West Midlands and North West, figures suggest.
In the Midlands, the R rate is between 1.1 and 1.4 and this covers both the East and West Midlands.
In the North West the rate is between 1.0 and 1.4.
What does the R rate mean?
R0, or R nought, refers to the average number of people that one infected person can expect to pass the coronavirus on to.
Scientists use it to predict how far and how fast a disease will spread - and the number can also inform policy decisions about how to contain an outbreak.
For example, if a virus has an R0 of three, it means that every sick person will pass the disease on to three other people if no containment measures are introduced.
It's also worth pointing out that the R0 is a measure of how infectious a disease is, but not how deadly
Merseyside is seeing a resurgence of the virus after beating record high numbers in the autumn.
In the North East and Yorkshire the rate is between 1.1 and 1.4.
A cluster of places in the region, including Redcar and Cleveland, Middlesbrough and Cumbria - are among the top 20 areas with worsening case rates.
The Department of Health and Social Care this afternoon said that the R rate had remained broadly similar from estimates on December 23.
It did however state that there was "less regional variation" than the last update.
The department states that there is a lag in the data published.
It stated: "These estimates cannot account for the impact of recent policy changes or changes in transmission that have not yet been reflected in epidemiological data.
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"This includes any changes that might have occurred over the festive period or the lockdown in England, announced on 5 January."
Experts said the new data published on the R rate today was "unsurprising".
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Dr Simon Clarke, Associate Professor in Cellular Microbiology at the University of Reading said infections are "increasing at pace" but added that people need to remember that the figures published by Sage are estimates.
He said: "The lack of substantial variation amongst the English regions is indicative that the epidemic was thought to be growing right across the country and that the measures required to suppress growth were probably needed everywhere.”