Britain faces a ‘human disaster’ unless there’s a full Tier 4 lockdown everywhere by New Year, says expert

BRITAIN faces a "human disaster" unless there's a full New Year lockdown with Tier 4 everywhere, a Sage scientist has said.

Professor Robert West warned the UK was facing catastrophe after Chief Scientific Adviser Sir Patrick Vallance said the new strain has already spread "everywhere" in the UK.

⚠️ Read our coronavirus live blog for the latest news & updates

Sir Patrick said last night the new Covid strain was spreading at terrifying speed and Sage scientist Professor West, a psychologist at University College London, called for intensified efforts to stop the virus in its tracks.

Professor West said an "economic human and social disaster" would follow unless the Government built up contact tracing systems similar to ones in East Asia.

He told the Guardian: ";We need to reset our strategy and move rapidly to a zero Covid strategy of the kind that many have been proposing.

"It sounds expensive but the alternative could well be a catastrophic collapse in confidence in the country's ability to control the virus and the economic, human and social disaster that would follow."

And UCL professor of infectious diseases, Andrew Hayward has pushed for a third national lockdown.

He said: "I think it's clearer to give a consistent national message because although the levels of risk are different in different parts of the country, they're still there and they're still substantial."

Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty has warned the Prime Minister that the number of patients in hospital with Covid is on course to match the April peak by New Year's Eve – and will continue increasing in January, reports the Daily Mail.

The Prime Minister, while denying suggestions a third national lockdown was imminent, acknowledged at Monday's Downing Street press conference, significant restrictions were likely to remain in place for months, but insisted it would be a "very different world'" by Easter. 

Sir Patrick also warned of the new mutant strain ripping across the nation: "It's more transmissible, we've absolutely got to make sure we've got the right level of restrictions in place."

"I think it is likely that this will grow in numbers of the variant across the country, and I think its likely therefore that measures are going to need to be increased in some places, not reduced."

Already a third of the country are in Tier 4 - the new highest level of restrictions like lockdown.

In a grave warning, he added: "I think it is a case that this will spread more."

He said it was already "everywhere" after other health experts confirmed it was now in every region of the country.

And Home Secretary Priti Patel warned this morning ministers would take "all necessary steps" to contain the mutation - and would not rule out a fresh national lockdown.

When asked about whether a nationwide lockdown was inevitable, Ms Patel said: "I think it's important to remember, as we've seen this virus spread, grow and evolve, the Government, working with our scientific advisers, will take all the necessary steps to contain this."

Speaking to Sky News, she said: "This is a stronger strain of the virus, it's more transmittable. It's a bouncy virus, so obviously people can catch it in a much easier way.

Cases in London have doubled in the last week alone.

And there are now eight places across the UK - from Medway to Boston - which have recorded more than 1000 cases per 100,000.

Health Officials yesterday warned that anyone who has travelled to Manchester from any Tier 4 area or Wales should isolate for ten days - even if they don't have Covid symptoms.     

It comes as

• All of the UK could be thrown into Tier 4 lockdown in New Year as mutant strain spread "everywhere"
• The number of Covid patients in hospital could hit April peak by New Year
• Priti Patel refused to rule out a fresh national lockdown to stop mutant Covid
• More than 1,5000 lorries are piled up at Dover as ministers scramble to test every driver
• Retail chiefs demanded lorry chaos be solved by Wednesday to prevent stores running out of food

Greater Manchester's 10 Directors of Public Health issued the guidance, which says the isolation period starts from December 19 and visitors must remain indoors in the property where they are currently staying.  

Other people who live in the house do not need to isolate unless anyone gets symptoms, but no visitors should be allowed in that house at all, even on Christmas Day.

Boris Johnson was unable to commit to all kids returning to school as planned in January, too.

It came after scientists on a Sage subcommittee warned yesterday the new strain may be more easily spread among younger children.

And people carry a bigger viral load, meaning they are more prone to spreading it.

Scientists are worried this new variant - which has been found around the world too - may soon become the dominant strain of the virus.

Boris would only say that he wanted to get schools back "if we possibly can".

They are already due to return to class a week later so that all secondary school kids can get a coronavirus tests.

The PM told the nation last night: "I think the most useful thing I can tell you at this stage is obviously if we possibly can get schools back in a staggered way at the beginning of January, the way that we have set out.

"But obviously, the commonsensical thing to do is follow the path of the epidemic as we showed last Saturday and keep things under constant review.

"It is very, very important to get kids and keep kids in education if we possibly can."

Fears of a horrifying second wave, which could see cases mount to more than 700,000 a week, have caused the the Welsh Ambulance Service to call on the support of the military as it fights the latest surge.

The ambulance service's chief executive Jason Killens said: "The extreme pressure on our ambulance service in the last couple of weeks has been well documented, and it's why we've taken the decision to re-enlist the military, who did a superb job of assisting us earlier in the year."

And Irish Prime Minister Micheal Martin announced fresh "stay at home" orders from Christmas Eve until January 12.

The country will be forced into "level 5" lockdown rules, but non-essential retail will be allowed to stay open. 

And people will be allowed to visit gyms, leisure centres and swimming pools for individual training. 

The PM appeared yesterday alongside Transport Secretary Grant Shapps, just days after his national address on Saturday.

He revealed he'd held a crunch call with the French President as the pair try and thrash out a solution to get traffic flowing across the Channel again.

In an attempt to calm the nation, he said the delays "only apply to a very small percentage of food" coming into the UK and insisted everyone should "continue to shop normally" and not panic buy and stockpile.

He said: "I've just spoken to President Macron - we had a very good call and we both understand each other's positions, and want to resolve these problems as fast as as possible.

"We're working to a solution as I say, as fast as we can, to allow freight traffic to resume, between the UK and France, and to ensure that lorries can travel in both directions in a COVID secure way."

And he stressed that the "risks of transmission by a solitary driver sitting alone in the cab are really very low".

He also told the nation that 500,000 people had now been given the vaccine, as ministers race to get it out faster than the virus is spreading.

STAY AT HOME

At the weekend Mr Johnson was forced to tell people living within Tier 4 areas to cancel their Christmas plans and stay at home once again.

And Brits across the country have been given "stay local" orders for their smaller Christmas celebrations, to stop the virus spreading.

Christmas bubbles were almost entirely scrapped with those living in Tiers 1, 2 and 3 only able to meet loved ones for one day.

News of the mutant strain - which Matt Hancock said was "out of control" - has spooked other nations, who have shut the borders with the UK and cancelled flights.

France closed all routes by air, sea and the Eurotunnel from the UK, and lorries snaked for as many as seven miles through Kent trying to get to the border.

To add to the chaos, they banned freight and other imports and exports too - sparking panic about food supplies in the run up to Christmas.

The border shut down caused frenzied fear over food shortages, with Sainsbury's and the British Retail Consortium warning fruit and veg could run out after Christmas.

SUPERMARKET SWEEP

A spokesperson for the supermarket said: "All products for the Great British Christmas lunch are already in the country and we have plenty of these.

"We are also sourcing everything we can from the UK and looking into alternative transport for product sourced from Europe.

"If nothing changes, we will start to see gaps over the coming days on lettuce, some salad leaves, cauliflowers, broccoli and citrus fruit - all of which are imported from the Continent at this time of year.

"We hope the UK and French governments can come to a mutually agreeable solution that prioritises the immediate passage of produce and any other food at the ports."

Though, the French Transport Secretary Jean-Baptises Djebbari said the 48-hour shutdown could be eased within hours.

But French President Emmanuel Macron said this could require lorry drivers to hand over a negative Covid PCR tests - which would mean the UK would need to very quickly ramp up mass testing infrastructure in Kent.

MONTHS OF TIER 4

Health Secretary Matt Hancock caused further dismay on Sunday, after he suggested Tier 4 rules could stay in place for months - until the vaccination is rolled out to the most vulnerable people.

It has fuelled fears, Tier 4 could be extended to other parts of the UK, as frantic Londoners tried to escape the capital ahead of the new lockdown.

Speaking about the new strain of the virus, Professor Openshaw of Imperial College London, a member of Government advisory committee Nervtag, told  "It’s very unlikely anything less than really effective measures are going to control it.

"My concern is people are not going to comply. It’s really important people appreciate the danger.

"It does seem inevitable it will spread but it doesn’t mean it’s useless trying to prevent that from happening."

He added that it may be "necessary to extend" the Tier 4 restrictions further into England as the virus spreads.

And there were scenes of chaos at airports as France and a host of other European countries, including Germany and Italy, slapped travel bans on anyone coming from the UK.

STRANDED IN EUROPE

Some Brits were held against against their will, as the EU scrambled to stop the new strain making its way to the Continent.

In Germany, officials at Hanover airport set up campbeds for 63 people who arrived from Britain.

Nurses in hazmat suits were screening the last arrivals from the UK on Sunday night as angry passengers were told to sleep in the terminal building.