PASSED THE PEAK
Covid cases flatlined weeks ago ‘raising hopes for Xmas and LAST lockdown’
COVID cases "flatlined" two weeks ago raising hopes of a "normal Christmas and the end of national lockdowns", experts said today.
It comes as data revealed that cases of the virus are starting to fall in the UK according to the latest data from the Covid Symptom App.
⚠️ Read our coronavirus live blog for the latest news & updates
6
6
Professor Carl Heneghan, director of evidence-based medicine at Oxford University said hospitals are not being overwhelmed and that they are running at “normal” capacity for this time of year.
He told talkRADIO this morning that Brits may be able to enjoy a somewhat "normal Christmas" if they prepare in advance by reducing contact in the weeks leading up to the festive period.
This, he said, would lower the chances of Covid and other bugs like flu passing from household to household.
Meanwhile, Paul Hunter, a professor of medicine at the University of East Angliatold The Sun that this second lockdown "could be the last" - pointing out the tier system was working.
He said: "I think this will be the last full lockdown we see - if going into lockdown triggers infections then what’s the point?
"I know that's overly blunt, but once you are in lockdown - case numbers declined slowly compared to an increase beforehand.
"A surge at the beginning reduces the benefit of going into it, we could have waited another week to see if the tiers would work."
He said cases in Tier 3 areas had been "slowing in the last week of October", proving that the tier system was having an impact.
6
Speaking to talkRADIO Prof Heneghan this morning highlighted that warnings from the government about worst case death scenarios had been “shown to be incorrect”.
Slides shown at a previous Downing Street press conference suggested that the UK could be seeing 1,500 daily deaths from coronavirus by early December.
Prof Heneghan said: “It’s important to recognise that all of them scenarios that came from the modelling from deaths have now been shown to be incorrect.
“Second was the important information about hospitals being overwhelmed and actually they are not being overwhelmed, what we are seeing is they are at about 84 per cent of capacity, which is normal for this time of year.
“There are some pressures around the system, in the Midlands where we are seeing cases go up slightly, they have critical care units two of them are at surge capacity.
“Over 200 acute hospitals collect data in their critical care units, about 70 per cent of them are at normal pressures at this time of year.
“What we have seen with cases, this is really important about this yo-yo of lockdown and opening up and closing down, is they were flatlining about two weeks ago.”
6
Warnings around deaths and hospital admissions were previously issued to the general public in order to urge people to curb the spread.
Last month top health boss Stephen Powis delivered a grim warning and claimed that the number of Covid patients in hospital in October had been higher than the first lockdown in March.
He said the health service was readying itself for a fresh battle against the virus and a handful of Nightingale hospitals will be mobilised to ensure there is enough space.
At the start of November Sir Simon Stevens said that more than 11,000 Covid patients are being treated in England's hospitals.
Data on the government's coronavirus dashboard dated November 11 states that in the last seven days, 11,592 people have been admitted to hospital with the virus with a daily rate of 1,922.
Prof Heneghan's comments come just days after experts at King’s College London revealed that data from the ZOE Symptom Tracker app found that cases were decreasing.
The data published on Friday suggested that there are currently 35,963 daily new symptomatic cases of Covid in the UK.
6
This compares to 42,049 daily new symptomatic cases this time last week, according to the ZOE Covid Symptom Study app.
The data also shows that the R rate in the North West is now at 0.8 - the lowest in the country, despite being the Covid epicentre just weeks ago.
Daily new cases in the region are now back down to the same levels they were at the beginning of October.
On Friday the government also released its prediction on the R rate, which revealed that the rate has fallen and that it could be as low as 0.9 in the North West.
The current R value - the number of people an infected person will pass Covid-19 on to - is estimated to be between 1.0 and 1.2.
As the R rate falls and cases of the virus decrease, Prof Heneghan hinted that a normal Christmas could be possible, but said that people might have to restrict themselves in preparation for the festive season.
6
He said that December and January are the "worst months for other infections" and said that part of the problem is that schools are open right up until Christmas, with just a short break at the end of December.
"So we have lots of infections in December and then our death rates go up in January. So what I have said is what we need to think about is what minimises the social disruption.
“Well actually you could extend the school holidays and the reason because of that is that a week is not enough to come out of school, get well and then go and see grandma.
“But if you had two weeks you could have social contact bubbles that where we agree for the week before we are going to look after ourselves, we are going to reduce our contacts and then we will be able to see grandma because we have had enough time to get well."
Countdown to Christmas
He said this applies for most infections and not just others.
Prof Hunter said that while people gathering at Christmas could increase transmission of the virus, it wouldn't have a "huge impact on society".
He added: "I suspect we will see some form of relaxation for a few days many from Christmas Eve for a few days, boxing day and the day after.
"Yes it will increase transmission for a while and it may be that because of that increase it could cause some increase in deaths.
"But if there is a degree of constraint of no big groups then it might be something that wouldn’t have a huge impact and society.
Most read in Health News
"For example, my own situation where I haven't really been out, a proper family Christmas for a few days would make it a lot easier to cope for the rest of the Winter."
Prof Carl added that there is a "small number of excess deaths" being reported at the moment, but said that the fact they are announced daily makes it "scary".
READ MORE SUN STORIES
He added: "There is one number that still concerns me and that’s the number of people dying in their own home.
"That’s been elevated now for five to six months right throughout this pandemic and 90 per cent of them are not deaths from Covid."
NHS Boss says we need 'much stiffer lockdown restrictions' before we can deploy a COVID-19 Vaccine
Topics