UK’s coronavirus R rate is stable – in sign second wave of epidemic is ‘slowing’
BRITAIN'S coronavirus R rate has remained exactly the same as last week - suggesting the epidemic has slowed, new data shows.
The current R value - the number of people an infected person will pass Covid-19 on to - is estimated to be between 1.1 and 1.3.
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It's the same range for the entire country as last week, while some regions have seen the figure fall.
The update from the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) comes after data from the ZOE Symptom Study app revealed that the R rate has dropped down to 1 in England and could be as low as 0.9 in Scotland.
R represents the average number of people each Covid-19 positive person goes on to infect.
When the figure is above 1, an outbreak can grow exponentially.
An R number between 1.1 and 1.3 means that on average every 10 people infected will infect between 11 and 13 other people.
The growth rate, which estimates how quickly the number of infections is changing day by day, also remains unchanged and is between two per cent and four per cent.
It's important to note that Sage's R rating estimate lags behind the Government's daily cases and deaths data by about two weeks.
The most likely value for R and growth rate is towards the middle of that range, according to the experts.
Modelling groups use different data ranges to estimate the R rate - which is why there is a difference between estimates from Sage and the ZOE app.
Growing epidemic
Sage said that it is confident that the epidemic has continued to grow in England over recent weeks.
It states: "Although there is some evidence that the rate of growth in some parts of the country may be slowing, levels of disease are very high in these areas and significant levels of healthcare demand and mortality will persist until R is reduced to and remains well below 1 for an extended period of time."
Looking at the rates on a regional level and the North East and Yorkshire has gone from an R rate of 1.1 - 1.3 last week to 1.1 - 1.2.
Other areas that have seen drops include the North West, which is now at 1.0 -1.1, as well as the South East which now has an R rate of 1.2 - 1.4.
The Midlands has gone down and is now at 1.1 - 1.3, while the East of England is now at 1.1 - 1.4.
Before the second national lockdown was implemented, London had been set to enter Tier 3 restrictions, and the R rate in the capital has remained the same over the last week.
In the South West it has remained flat at 1.2 - 1.4.
What does R rate mean?
R0, or R nought, refers to the average number of people that one infected person can expect to pass the coronavirus on to.
Scientists use it to predict how far and how fast a disease will spread - and the number can also inform policy decisions about how to contain an outbreak.
For example, if a virus has an R0 of three, it means that every sick person will pass the disease on to three other people if no containment measures are introduced.
It's also worth pointing out that the R0 is a measure of how infectious a disease is, but not how deadly.
It comes as new data suggests the rate of coronavirus infections across England and Wales appears to be slowing.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said an estimated 618,700 people in England - one in 90 - had Covid-19 between October 25 and 31, up from 568,100 the week before.
But while the infection rate has increased in recent weeks, "the rate of increase is less steep compared with previous weeks", the ONS said.
Data from Public Health England also revealed that infections had dropped in more than half of the local authorities in England before the second national lockdown was implemented this week.
Cases dropped in 82 of the 149 local authorities across the country, including previous hotspots, such as Blackburn with Darwen and Liverpool.
Ruth Studley, head of analysis for the ONS Covid-19 infection survey, said: "At a national level we are seeing infections slow across England and Wales but they are still increasing.
"Within England, every region apart from the North East has shown increased levels of infection.
"The level of infection in young adults and older teenagers appears to have levelled off recently.
"However, they continue to be the most likely to be infected despite increases in all other age groups."
When looking at new daily infections, the ONS said the rate across England appears to have "stabilised".
There were an average of 45,700 new cases per day of Covid-19 in private homes between October 25 and 31, down from an estimated 51,900 new cases per day for the period from October 17 to 23.
This suggests the rate of new infections "appears to have stabilised in recent weeks at around 50,000 new infections per day", the ONS said.
The figures do not include people staying in hospitals or care homes and are based on more than 689,000 swab tests gathered from across the UK in people with and without symptoms.
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It comes as more than 64,000 deaths involving Covid-19 have now occurred in the UK, according to figures produced by statistical agencies.
Some 61,498 deaths have so far been registered in the UK where Covid-19 was mentioned on the death certificate.
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A further 2,442 deaths are known to have occurred in England, plus 24 in Scotland, 163 in Wales and 43 in Northern Ireland, according to additional data published on the Government's coronavirus dashboard.
Together, these totals mean that so far 64,170 deaths involving Covid-19 have taken place in the UK.