Covid cases fell in HALF of England’s local authorities BEFORE second lockdown started
COVID infections fell across England in the week before the second lockdown, new PHE data shows.
Cases dropped in 82 of the 149 local authorities across the country, including previous hotspots, such as Blackburn with Darwen and Liverpool.
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The new figures cover the week beginning October 26 - and show infections rising in 66 areas.
It comes as England was plunged into a second lockdown to curb the spread of Covid-19 and protect the NHS from mounting winter pressures.
In a further sign that the second wave is stabilising, the weekly ONS infection survey, published today, shows daily infections dropped 12 per cent on the previous week.
With around 45,000 new infections each day, the ONS said it is a sign the outbreak is "stabilising" for the first time since the summer.
Meanwhile, the R rate has remained stable, not moving since last week. It means Sage scientists believe the reproduction rate of the virus currently lies somewhere between 1.1 and 1.3.
'Passed the second peak'
That's not far off the slightly more optimistic view of another major study, by scientists at King's College London.
Their weekly analysis of the ZOE Covid Symptom Study app data suggests that the R rate has dropped to 1, down from 1.1 last week - and could be 0.9 in Scotland.
Researchers said infections nationally have stopped increasing in most age groups, apart from small increases in the those over 60.
Professor Tim Spector, who leads the KCL study, said: "Over the past week cases are heading in the right direction.
"Our data is an early indicator of the future NHS situation as we are two weeks ahead of hospital data and four weeks ahead of most deaths.
"So, while these population change will take a while to work through, we believe they are a positive sign that we have passed the peak of this second wave."
Welcome news the epidemic is slowing
Experts said it is encouraging to see these major studies report similar findings.
Prof Paul Hunter, from the University of East Anglia said the ONS findings "suggest the epidemic is not increasing as rapidly and may have even started to decline".
Meanwhile, Prof James Naismith said while the virus is still growing "it does appear to have stabilised".
He predicted that if this is indeed the peak of infections during this second wave, deaths are unlikely to rise much about 1,000 a day for a prolonged period of time.
"We are still likely to face daily death tolls of 500 a day for a period in November, and each death represents a human tragedy," he added.
Prof Naismith said the impact of this second national lockdown won't be seen in the ONS figures for another two weeks, but he said he would expect to see a "rapid decrease in the number of new infections" after that.
Tier we go
The infection rates for each local authority published by PHE yesterday, suggest the previous Tier-lockdown system was working - as cases in previous hotspots in the North start to fall.
In Liverpool, the first area to be forced into Tier 3 restrictions, infections have gone from 476.87 per 100,000 to 324.07 in the space of a week.
A similar story can be seen in Manchester, where mayor Andy Burnham had been reluctant to enter into Tier 3 restrictions due to the economic impact on the area.
Cases in Manchester have gone from 505.55 per 100,000 to 456.18 per 100,000.
Only one area in the country had no movement in cases.
Rotherham in South Yorkshire has remained unchanged with 514.3 cases per 100,000 of the population
The data is based on pillar 1 testing, which is swabs carried out in NHS hospitals for those with clinical need and healthcare workers and well as in PHE labs.
It also takes into account pillar 2 testing which is swab testing for the wider population.
Second wave is 'serious and real'
Last night Boris Johnson and NHS boss Sir Simon Stevens reiterated the importance of a second lockdown to protect the NHS.
The Prime Minister said there are more than 12,000 Covid patients in England's hospitals - the equivalent to 22 hospitals' full, Sir Simon added.
Sir Simon presented a graph at the Downing Street press conference, showing hospital admissions are on the rise.
He said at the beginning of September there were 500 Covid patients in hospital, which increased to 2,000 in October. Boris Johnson said that number is now at 12,230 patients.
"That's the equivalent of 22 of our hospitals across England full of coronavirus patients," Sir Simon added.
"In a sense we already know what is likely to happen, today's infection is the ICU order book for a fortnight's time.
"The reason why action is needed is because infections happening now will produce that increase in hospital admissions.
"The 11,000 coronavirus patients we see now compares with about 3,000 patients typically in hospital on any one day with flu.
"It compares with 7,000 patients being looked after for cancer. This is not speculation, this is fact.
"Those are not projections, forecasts, speculations, those are the patients in hospital today."
'Dodgy data'
During the press conference last night, Sir Simon took a swipe at charts that had previously been presented by scientific advisers and said they had been "hard to keep up with".
He was referring to a graph presented by Professor Chris Whitty and Sir Patrick Vallance on Saturday night which showed there would be 4,000 coronavirus deaths a day by December in England alone.
The graph was based on models and had been criticised by the experts behind the data who said it had been presented to the public incorrectly.
The graphs have since been proven to be incorrect.
Forecasts that had been shared by the government have now also been revised after the UK Statistics Authority, the country's official statistics watchdog, issued a warning to ministers and Government advisers over the use of coronavirus data in ways which can "confuse" the public.
The body said there was a danger that confidence in official figures will be undermined if they are issued without "appropriate explanations of context and sources".
"The use of data has not consistently been supported by transparent information being provided in a timely manner," a statement said.
"Full transparency is vital to public understanding and public confidence in statistics and those who use them."
In response the government had been forced to change a graph which had suggested that the UK could be seeing 1,500 daily deaths from coronavirus by early December.
The rate would have far exceeded the peak of 1,166 deaths seen on April 21, during the first wave of the virus.
But slides now published on the Government's website to accompany the press briefing show a maximum daily death toll of just over 1,000 by December 8.
The maximum estimated daily hospital admissions have also been revised down from 9,000 to 6,000.
Cases decreasing
While hospital admissions are clearly rising - but not at levels that had previously been suggested, the data from PHE suggests that cases are decreasing across England.
Data released by PHE yesterday also stated that cases are levelling off across younger age groups - but added that they are still increasing in age groups over 40.
The data also suggested that two of the worst affected areas in London - which had been heading into Tier 3 restrictions has seen a drop off in cases.
Ealing has gone from 231.71 cases per 100,000 to 171.15 cases per 100,000 while Hammersmith and Fulham has also seen a drop from 218.75 to 169.6.
Birmingham, in the West Midlands, had also been in discussions to enter Tier 3 restrictions and infections there have dropped slightly from 276.23 to 275.26.
Restrictions in England are set to be in place until December 2, providing cases drop off.
Christmas on the cards
The data from PHE gives hope the restrictions will be eased in time for Christmas so that families across the country can enjoy the festive period with their loved ones.
A vaccine is still not available for the virus, but Sir Simon yesterday hinted that there could be options on the table before the end of the year.
Vaccine chiefs said the UK will have stockpiled 14 million doses of the two front-running jabs by the end of the year.
NHS England boss Sir Simon declared yesterday it was “ten out of ten” ready to roll out mass vaccinations.
In the absence of a vaccine, Mr Johnson has also said mass testing is now being trialled in Liverpool, which could help people get on with their daily lives.
The PM has hailed the program as "the way forward" as army troops have piled into the city to help administer millions of swabs.
Mr Johnson said the new rapid-turn around test being trialled in Liverpool is "full of promise".
Despite vaccine and testing hope, yesterday deaths caused by Covid-19 rose by 378 and cases by 24,141.
The cases reported yesterday were up from 23,065 on the same day last week, a rise of only 1,076.
The government at one point warned that new cases could continue to double each week, although fears continue that the virus's spread could accelerate as the winter weather sets in.
The figures brought the total number of deaths in the UK to 48,120 and the total number of cases to 1,123,197.
In England, there were 21,137 new cases of coronavirus recorded, bringing the total number recorded since the start of the pandemic to 955,236.
There were 297 new deaths recorded, bringing the total to 42,433.
In Wales, today saw a further 1,272 cases recorded, bringing the total number of confirmed infections to 56,927.
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Public Health Wales reported another 30 deaths, taking the total since the start of the pandemic to 1,969.
Scotland has recorded 39 deaths and 1,216 positive tests in the past 24 hours, Nicola Sturgeon said.
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The First Minister said the death toll has now risen to 2,966.
Despite some flattening of the second wave, yesterday saw 25,177 cases reported, the third highest daily increase since the start of the pandemic.