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Graph shows Covid hospital admissions rising – as experts claim NHS is ‘no busier than usual’
THE second Covid wave is "serious and real", the head of the NHS warned tonight.
Sir Simon Stevens presented a graph at today's Downing Street press conference, showing more than 11,000 Covid patients are being treated in England's hospitals.
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He said that equates to 22 hospitals full of coronavirus patients.
Sir Simon acknowledged that in some parts of the country the health service is coping better than others, but he warned the NHS faces a grave winter.
It comes as some experts argued the NHS is "no busier than usual".
In a thinly veiled swipe at Sir Patrick Vallance and Professor Chris Whitty, Sir Simon said he chose to bring one slide to highlight his point.
The chief scientific advisers came under fire for presenting "terrifying" models predicting 4,000 deaths at Saturday's press conference, with critics accusing them of confusing the public with forecasts based on models.
Sir Simon said: "I'm sure the Prime Minister won't mind me saying so - I have watched these press briefings and sometimes the charts can be a bit hard to keep up with, so I have just got one chart today that indisputably sets out what we in the health service are seeing."
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Sir Simon said at the beginning of September there were 500 Covid patients in hospital, which increased to 2,000 in October. Boris Johnson said that number is now at 12,230 patients.
"That's the equivalent of 22 of our hospitals across England full of coronavirus patients," Sir Simon added.
"In a sense we already know what is likely to happen, today's infection is the ICU order book for a fortnight's time.
"The reason why action is needed is because infections happening now will produce that increase in hospital admissions.
"The 11,000 coronavirus patients we see now compares with about 3,000 patients typically in hospital on any one day with flu.
"It compares with 7,000 patients being looked after for cancer. This is not speculation, this is fact.
"Those are not projections, forecasts, speculations, those are the patients in hospital today."
Second wave is 'serious and real'
Sir Simon said NHS colleagues he spoke to earlier today asked him to pass on the message that the second wave is "serious and real".
Sir Simon and the Prime Minister highlighted how quickly hospital beds could fill up, with an animations showing the lag time between a person developing symptoms and ending up in need of hospital care.
But it comes as new data from Public Health England shows that cases are starting to level off in young people, while still increasing in all age groups over 40 - typically those who are most likely to need hospital care.
Health secretary Matt Hancock outlined his fears earlier in the day, warning the health service could collapse and seriously ill non-Covid patients could be turned away if Covid wasn't brought under control.
'No busier than usual'
However, leading scientists and experts said the health service is no busier than normal for this time of the year.
An NHS source yesterday told the Telegraph that hospital capacity is tracking as normal, with beds still available and no need yet to use extra Nightingale capacity.
Following the closure of the Nightingale hospitals, there is still 15 per cent capacity across the country - which is fairly normal for this time of year.
Leaked documents showed there were 9,138 patients in hospital in England as of 8am on November 2, although it had since fallen to 9,077.
They sugges that on Tuesday, just 84 per cent of hospital beds were occupied, which is lower than the 92 per cent figure which was recorded in Autumn last year.
It means Covid-19 patients are accounting for around 10 per cent of general and acute beds in hospitals. But, there are still more than 13,000 beds available.
Meanwhile, Oxford University's Professor Carl Heneghan said his work suggests that a fifth of infected patients actually got the virus while in hospital.
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One intensive care doctor told : “It is my personal view a lockdown was not needed right now, the data they've used has been conveniently sampled.
“The official rationale from the Government will be to ensure people are safe and lives are saved but I think the real reason is they do not want to receive the same criticism they did the first time round.”
Professor Karol Sikora, a consultant oncologist and professor of medicine at the University of Buckingham, added: “This is supposed to be a national health service, if Leeds' ICU is full, we can send patients to Newcastle, for example. We do it all the time, for other conditions.”
Meanwhile, an NHS worker has publicly resigned after claiming she had no work for three weeks - at the height of the pandemic.
Shelley Tasker, 43, a healthcare assistant at Treliske hospital, part of the Royal Cornwall Hospitals NHS Trust, took a megaphone to the streets of Truro and blasted that claims the NHS was overrun were “lies”.
She said: "None of the wards were overflowing with Covid patients and they're not now."
Further treatments
Sir Simon added that Covid treatments that were not available at the start of the pandemic have helped reduce the death toll.
Speaking a Downing Street press conference alongside Prime Minister Boris Johnson, Sir Simon highlighted treatments such as dexamethasone, that have been key to treating patients.
The NHS chief said that the main goal this winter was to suppress the virus and ensure that the NHS does not become overwhelmed.
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In the absence of a vaccine to beat the virus - a variety of treatments are being trialled and Mr Johnson highlighted the new testing scheme in Liverpool that is being rolled out.
Sir Simon said: "We've got new treatments that are being trialled and tested in the NHS.
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"As a result death rates for some patients have more than halved
"We are doing very well thanks to the brilliant work of GPs who have also expanded their flu vaccination programmes", he added.
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