Rule of six and 10pm curfew on pubs likely to have ‘ZERO effect’ on reducing Covid spread, study claims

The researchers quizzed thousands of participants before and after the measures came into play in September.

More contacts than before

They found that most people were seeing the same number of contacts they had seen before restrictions had come in.

This means that the rules did not have the outcome that experts had wanted - which was to drive down the amount of social contacts people were having.

Of those who participated - just one third said they had fewer contacts.

However - 26 per cent said they had seen more people than before.

Looking specifically at the 10pm curfew and people in areas such as Manchester - which had been under tougher restrictions since the end of summer - said they had seen less than one fewer person than before the restrictions were implemented.

Scientists warned that this would have less impact in slowing the spread, as a full lockdown in March reduced the average number of contacts from 10.8 to 2.8.

This was after offices were closed and people were told to work from home.

The retail and hospitality industry was also closed during this time.

The research was co-authored by Professor John Edmunds, who last week warned that a second wave of the coronavirus could peak at Christmas.

The findings from the study state that neither the curfew nor the rule of six has helped bring down the R rate.

On Friday it was reported that the R rate had dropped slightly across the UK, but that all regions remained above the crucial 1.

The UK currently has an R rate between 1.2 and 1.4.

There was no suggestion that 10pm closure of bars and restaurants has had an effect on reducing the mean number of contacts that participants make outside home, work, and school

Study authors

Experts had previously said that there was "no scientific evidence" behind the rule of six and that it "should be binned".

The study surveyed people about their social habits and whether or not they had changed since the toughest restrictions were imposed in March.

Across the UK 3,222 people were quizzed on who they had met in the last 24 hours during the two weeks before and after restrictions came into place. 

Around 43 per cent of people who were asked about how their contacts had changed since the rule of six was implemented said they had not seen a change in their day to day activity.

A third said they were seeing fewer people while a quarter said they were actually seeing more people.

Dr Christopher Jarvis and his team said that, of those who participated - the average number of contacts was two.

They claimed that this was the same both before and after the rules were implemented.

The researchers also revealed that over 50 per cent of people were seeing the same number of people they had been before the 10pm curfew was implemented.

It found that 24 per cent were seeing more and 25.6 per cent were seeing less.