DON'T PANIC
UK coronavirus cases were likely 100k a day at our peak – so today’s 7,000 isn’t too bad, says Vallance
CORONAVIRUS cases at the peak of the first wave were likely 100,000 a day, the country's top scientist has said.
Sir Patrick Vallance said the number of cases reported in March and April in the UK were greatly underestimated.
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His comments come after new data revealed that the true scale of March’s coronavirus peak in Europe was ten times the current second wave.
Meanwhile, the UK has recorded the highest number of daily Covid cases since the outbreak began - with 7,108 new infections recorded today.
But the chief scientific adviser has assured the public that despite a surge in cases, the picture isn't nearly as bad as it was at the start of the crisis.
Speaking at a joint Downing Street tonight, he said: "The number of cases we’re seeing now are picked up because there’s much more testing.
"The number of cases that were reported in March were almost certainly a very big underestimate of the total.
"It’s much more likely that back in March and April at the peak of this we were seeing over 100,000 cases a day at certain times.
"We were only able to measure and report a fraction of that so it’s not a direct like for like comparison."
Professor Chris Whitty, England's chief medical officer, added that the way the virus is currently is spreading is much slower than it was at the start of the outbreak.
He said: “In terms of where we are compared to where we were in March, the reality is that the doubling time at the moment is slower than it was in March when it was three to four days.
“That was one big difference and one of the problems we had in the first wave.
“We initially underestimated how fast the doubling was occurring at that stage and it’s very important that we don’t do that a second time.
“Once exponential growth starts things go very quickly.”
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He added: “This small number of deaths now shouldn't reassure us that we won’t be in relatively short order in quite difficult places.
"Certainly, in regions where we are seeing significant growth at the moment, where pressure on the NHS could happen sooner rather than later if we don’t get on top of it quite fast.”
Boris Johnson said the way the virus is spreading may be different now to the way it was in March.
"We are seeing some very clear local peaks," he told a No 10 news conference.
"It may be that this is a more localised phenomenon this time in which case all the more reason for us to concentrate on these local solutions as well as these national solutions."
But the PM told Brits they can't "throw in the sponge" in the fight against coronavirus now "no matter how impatient or fed up" we are with strict rules and restrictions.
RISING CASES
As of 9am on Tuesday, there had been a further 7,143 lab-confirmed cases of coronavirus in the UK - the highest daily figure recorded since the outbreak began, although far more tests are being carried out than in the spring.
A further 71 people had died within 28 days of testing positive for Covid-19 as of Tuesday, bringing the UK total to 42,072 - although separate figures published by the UK's statistics agencies show Covid-19 was mentioned on the death certificate in nearly 57,900 cases.
Graphs from tonight's press conference also revealed how the intensive care units in London, the North East and North West are facing a "significant uptick" compared to the rest of the country.
The latest charts from the Government show that the majority of people in hospital and ICUs are over 75.
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Another slide revealed a map which showed that the North West and North East are at coronavirus breaking point - while the South of England has seen its infection rate largely remain stable.
Prof Whitty said the two regions had seen a “rapid increase” in infections - despite large swathes of both areas being under local lockdown.
One government slide, based on Public Health England data, shows the geographical spread of Covid-19 in England, and is based on the total rate of lab-confirmed cases of the virus in the seven days up to September 23.
The darker purple colours in the graph show the high concentration of cases in the North West, with areas including Manchester and Liverpool recording between 168 and 288 infections per 100,000 people.
Other hard-hit areas with infection rates over 100 cases per 100,000 include Leeds as well as Birmingham and Leicester in the Midlands.
NEW RULES
Meanwhile, the new regulations in Northumberland, Newcastle, Gateshead, North and South Tyneside, Sunderland and County Durham came into force at midnight and will see fines imposed if people mix with others from outside their household or bubble in indoor settings, including pubs and restaurants.
There are calls for "effective" public health messaging after Mr Johnson had to apologise over confusion about the lockdown measures in north-east England.
Mr Johnson stumbled over his explanation of the ban on households mixing, saying that he "misspoke".
With the rules not published until late on Tuesday night, ministers were quizzed about whether they would apply in settings such as beer gardens.
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In response to questions, Mr Johnson said: "In the North East and other areas where extra-tight measures have been brought in, you should follow the guidance of local authorities but it is six in a home, six in hospitality but, as I understand it, not six outside."
But he later tweeted: "Apologies, I misspoke today. In the North East, new rules mean you cannot meet people from different households in social settings indoors, including in pubs, restaurants and your home. You should also avoid socialising with other households outside."
The regulations state that people who operate premises should ensure groups gathering outdoors do not exceed six unless an exception applies, suggesting groups can still socialise outside provided they adhere to the rule of six.
Gateshead Council leader Martin Gannon said, although he was a life-long Labour supporter, he needed to see better leadership from the Tories.
He said: "I just want the Government to get a grip, get control of the situation, show some leadership and get some respect from the country.
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"Despite the fact it's Boris Johnson and a Conservative government, we need effective public health messaging.
"We need strong authoritative voices nationally."
Elsewhere, four North Wales local authority areas - Denbighshire, Flintshire, Conwy and Wrexham - will go into lockdown from 6pm on Thursday, and Wales's First Minister Mark Drakeford has asked Mr Johnson to urgently consider imposing travel restrictions in areas of England with high levels of coronavirus infections.
With MPs set to vote on the renewal of the Coronavirus Act's powers in the Commons on Wednesday, more than 50 Tories have backed an amendment calling for Parliament to be given a greater say over the use of measures to curb people's freedoms.
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