Coronavirus ‘spike’ IS levelling off – as daily cases drop 12% in a week, ONS data reveals

CORONAVIRUS cases may be starting to level off after weeks of creeping in the wrong direction, new figures have revealed.

The Office for National Statistics data shows 3,700 people in England are testing positive for Covid-19 every day.

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That’s a 12 per cent drop on the previous week (July 20 to 26), when figures showed 4,200 people were infected on a daily basis.

It comes a week after Boris Johnson announced he was “squeezing the brake pedal” on easing further lockdown measures – after an apparent spike in cases.

This included limiting social gatherings and closing gyms in some areas.

And Health Secretary Matt Hancock then announced a string of further local lockdowns in Northern England.

The lockdown areas included Greater Manchester, East Lancashire and parts of West Yorkshire.

Other areas that previously face restrictions included Leicester and Blackburn with Darwen.

The rolling seven-day rate of new Covid cases in Leicester fell from 62.4 per 100,000 people on July 27 to 52.2 by August 3.

And the rate fell from 88.8 to 82.2 in Blackburn and Darwen over the same period, according to Public Health England.

Experts said that small regional outbreaks can make a big difference in the national data.

Prof Keith Neal, from the University of Nottingham, said: “These local clusters need to be identified and managed with locally targeted measures.

“For many parts of the country infection rates continue to fall but caution and avoidance of high risk mixing needs to continue.

“The best way the public can help control Covid-19 is to get tested if they have symptoms, and if positive isolate and identify their contacts.”

The ONS Infection Survey, published today, estimates that 28,300 people in England tested positive for Covid-19 between July 27 and August 2 – the equivalent of one in 1,900 people.

That’s down from 35,700 people the previous week – the equivalent of one in 1,500 people.

Today, Sage updated the R rate, showing that it’s estimated to have crept up again for a second week running.

The R rate for the UK is now somewhere between 0.8 and 1 – up slightly from 0.8 to 0.9 last week.

While the R rate for most regions has also increased slightly, as the total number of infections in the UK falls, the R rate becomes more sensitive – meaning even a small outbreak can cause it to rise.

Professor Stephen Riley from Imperial College London said that on average, the data used for the Sage R rate is a little slower than ONS data. 

He said the R rise from Sage is better compared with previous reports from the ONS.

As the rate continues to change the government has vowed to ramp up testing to identify more people who are unknowingly infected because they have no symptoms.

They can then be isolated to stop them spreading the virus.

The ONS states: “Modelling shows rates of people testing positive for Covid-19 have risen since the lowest recorded estimate, which was at the end of June.

“But there is evidence that this trend may be levelling off when compared with last week’s headline estimate.”

The data is based on nose and throat swabs taken, and includes people who tested positive whether or not they had symptoms.

The ONS report states: “The number of people sampled in each region who tested positive for Covid-19 is low relative to England overall.

“This means there is a high degree of uncertainty in the regional estimates for this period, as indicated by large credible intervals.”

It also stated that there is no evidence to say that infection rates differ via regions.

Katherine Kent, from the ONS, said: “Although we are still reporting an increase in England since the lowest recorded level of infection in late June, this week’s estimates suggest this trend may be levelling off when compared with the data we published last week.”

Also today the ONS published estimates for the infection rate in Wales.

They show that between July 27 and August 2, an estimated 1,400 people in private households in Wales had Covid-19 – the equivalent of 0.05 per cent of the population, or around one in 2,200 people.