How nuclear World War 3 is serious threat if India and China ‘fist fights’ escalate conflict and allies get dragged in
THERE are growing fears military clashes along the India-China border could spark a nuclear World War 3.
A fire fight on Monday night left multiple Indian troops dead and has pushed tensions between the two mega-states to breaking point.
And in a chilling warning, India's PM Narendra Modi vowed those killed in the Galvan Valley will not die in vain.
In response China has said it will "crush" any military aggression from its neighbour.
Now there are genuine concerns the regional dispute between the two rival nuclear powers could erupt into a global conflict.
And that could see America - which has just signed a £3bn arms deal with ally India - dragged into the bloodshed.
New Delhi has grown closer to the US in recent years and Washington now calls India a "major defence partner".
The warm welcome afforded to President Trump in India also reflects the extent to which he has found new friends in the region.
Meanwhile, US-China relations have been are reaching an all-time low in the wake of a trade war and the coronavirus pandemic.
China, on the other hand, can count India's long-time enemy Pakistan as a very close friend and military partner.
Beijing - which calls Pakistan its "iron brother" - has become its largest supplier of arms and its third-largest trading partner.
The pair are curently involved in several military projects including the development of JF-17 Thunder fighter plane.
Chinese and Pakistani troops also conduct joint regular training sessions in the mountainous region.
Tensions have been growing along the border since the spring when China deployed thousands of troops as well as artillery and vehicles.
Analysts say the soldiers were sent there in an attempt to stop India increasing its own military presence in the area.
Then China moved scores of nukes to Mongolia and leaked images of the weapons just to let the world know they were there.
"Given China knows the location of India's bases, it could launch a pre-emptive first strike," warned Mark Almond, director of the Crisis Research Institute, Oxford,
"Even if the bombers got airborne, they could be shot down by Chinese air defences in a war.
"China has more than double the number of India's warheads - around 300 - and its strategy is based on the destruction of key urban centres which, it believes, would terrify an opponent into passive, appeasing mode."
So it seems Beijing now has the ability to strike anywhere in India and India has no effective defence from attack.
To make things worse, China has nuclear-armed Pakistan ready and waiting on India's doorstep.
This also increases the risk India might feel pressured to strike first before its bases can be knocked out by either China and Pakistan.
That would then almost definitely trigger a massive retaliatory strike from the nuclear-armed Chinese military.
And it could void Beijing's "no first use" policy in which it pledges only to use nukes in retaliation to a similar attack on them.
Not only would such an all-out conflict devastate billions of people in Asia it could force Russia - which has close ties to both - to choose sides.
While the UK and Europe will almost certainly back India in any conflict it is unlikely its armies will join in any fighting.
Other countries offering moral support to India are likely to include Israel and Sri Lanka.
Beijing can expect similar support from its loyal friends including North Korea, Iran and Venzeuela.
China and India have been arguing for decades over territory in the Himalayas.
In 1962, the giant neighbours even went to war over the disputed Ladakh region.
One month of bloodshed resulted in a Chinese military victory, with Beijing declaring a cease-fire after securing de facto control of the region.
But the militaries that face off in the Himalayas today are far different from those that fought more than 50 years ago.
Conventional wisdom says China holds a significant military advantage over India.
However, the recent study by the Belfer Centre suggests India maintains an edge in high-altitude mountainous environments.
And that could mean Beijing may rely on its nuclear supremacy if the "fist fights" escalate.
China became a nuclear power in 1964 and India in 1974.
Figures released this week by the estimate China has approximately 300 nuclear warheads.
SILK ROAD ROW
That is more than double India's count of 150.
Both countries maintain a triad of delivery systems - missiles, bombers and submarines.
Tensions between the rival nations has also been heightened recently over a long-running trade row.
India has failed to get on board Beijing's plans for a “new Silk Road” to open land and sea corridors linking China with the rest of Asia.
Most read in News
India’s snub to the project had been seen as the strongest move yet by Modi to stand up to mighty China.
Until now , there have been six major nuclear rivalries: US-Soviet Union, US-Russia, US-China, Soviet Union-China, US-North Korea and India-Pakistan.
It looks like India-China can now be added to that list.
READ MORE SUN STORIES
