I PREDICT A RIOT
Local lockdowns looming despite SAGE experts warning ministers they could cause ‘significant disorder’
MINISTERS have threatened local lockdowns to halt the spread of coronavirus - despite being warned the measures could cause "significant public disorder".
Matt Hancock raised the prospect of localised restrictions yesterday - hinting that areas hit harder by coronavirus could face tougher measures than others.
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But in China, such measures have proved challenging, causing riots in some places.
It comes after figures showed the crucial coronavirus R rate has crept back up above one in the North West and South West of England.
The Government has stressed throughout the pandemic that the R rate must remain below one in order to avoid a second peak of the virus.
If it rises above this level, the disease can spread exponentially, infecting more and more people.
R RATE RISES
New research by Public Health England and Cambridge University suggests the reproduction rate is 1.01 in the North West and 1.0 in the South West.
There is also evidence to suggest the value has risen in all regions, saying it was probably due to increasing mobility and mixing between households in public and work settings.
And as the nation awaits a further easing of lockdown measures - including pubs and restaurants reopening - the setback could mean tougher restrictions being enforced on local areas.
Speaking at last night's Downing Street briefing, Health Secretary Matt Hancock said the Government was "seeking to take a more local approach" to tackling outbreaks.
He added that there was a "challenge" in both the North West and the South West of England regarding the spread of the disease.
Now, that doesn't take away from the need to make sure that we spot and crackdown on localised outbreaks when they come.
Matt Hancock
But he noted: "It is very important that you look at all of these different studies in the round.
"The study you mentioned is an important one but the overall assessment which is brought together by SAGE which advises the Chief Medical Officer is what I look at.
"So we referred to the Office for National Statistics study that ... is based on data rather than modelling but what I do is look at all of these different studies and the overall view of SAGE is that the R is between 0.7 and 0.9 and that it is higher in the South West of England and the North West of England but it remains below one in each area.
"Now, that doesn't take away from the need to make sure that we spot and crackdown on localised outbreaks when they come."
'SIGNIFICANT ISSUE OF DISORDER'
Mr Hancock's comments come after documents from the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) warned last week that localised lockdowns could cause a "significant issue of public disorder".
In the documents, Professor Clifford Stott of Keele University (a professor specialising in hooliganism and riots) and the security sub-group of scientists, wrote: "Restrictions imposed in the UK during the epidemic have not led to conflict thus far because they have been perceived as fair (for the most part)."
"Any sense of inequality arising from the imposition of selective measures would likely lead to civil disorder and feed the propaganda of extremist groups and hostile states.
"Households within local areas may also fear retaliation if cases within a neighbourhood prevent release and may conceal cases as a result."
The scientists also warned that local lockdowns will ruin the sense of community that Brits have felt, and kill the spirit of "we're all in this together".
Cutting up parts of towns of cities would shatter Government support for the measures, and "could lead to significant public disorder", the documents warned.
The documents were published after China saw "far more public disquiet in China than has been commonly reported" after local lockdown measures, including "recent riots on the border with Hubei".
Back in March angry mobs rioted near coronavirus-ravaged city Wuhan after leaving quarantine and being told they couldn't travel elsewhere in China.
Shocking footage showed crowds attack cops and overturn police vehicles on a bridge linking Wuhan - the capital of Hubei Province - and neighbouring Jiangxi after the province's Covid-19 lockdown was relaxed.
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Scientists warned that Chinese cities and towns were different to those in the UK, and therefore it would be hard to find a cut off point to shut down certain areas.
In most cases it can't be easily divided up into areas.
Poorer people are also more susceptible to catching the virus, and lockdowns will therefore be more likely in areas of poverty, not rich areas.
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What is the R rate?
R0, or R nought, refers to the average number of people that one infected person can expect to pass the coronavirus on to.
Scientists use it to predict how far and how fast a disease will spread - and the number can also inform policy decisions about how to contain an outbreak.
For example, if a virus has an R0 of three, it means that every sick person will pass the disease on to three other people if no containment measures are introduced.
It's also worth pointing out that the R0 is a measure of how infectious a disease is, but not how deadly.
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