Coronavirus lockdown could last 18 MONTHS as government says 260,000 would die without drastic measures
CORONAVIRUS lockdowns could last for an incredible 18 MONTHS as Brits brace themselves for significant changes to daily life.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson told the nation yesterday of drastic new government measures to curb the killer bug - as researchers warned 260,000 people could have died without them.
⚠️ Read our coronavirus live blog for the latest news & updates
Researchers involved in the government curbs on daily life estimate 260,000 people would have died under the previous, less restricted, plans.
Brits have been told not to leave the house unless necessary and to work from home where possible, and avoid social contact.
The team from Imperial College London said the new tighter controls could limit deaths to around 20,000 - with the leading professor admitting the best case scenario would still see tens of thousands die.
The country could be stuck in a state of "permanent outbreak" and lockdown until a vaccine is found - which is at least a year away - experts warned.
Cases in the UK have soared to 1,950 and 71 people have now died from the killer bug as the pandemic continues to rampage through the country.
Professor Neil Ferguson, director of the MRC centre at Imperial, said today the UK is three weeks behind Italy, warning there was "no time to lose" as the NHS will be "overwhelmed many times over" in the fight against COVID-19.
The Imperial report found the best course of action was a Chinese-style "suppression" policy implementing social distancing for the entire population.
The PM announced major crackdown rules including:
- Whole families with symptoms such as a cough or a temperature should stay at home for TWO WEEKS to stop spreading it on to anyone else
- From tomorrow, the Government will no longer support mass gatherings either, meaning concerts and all major sporting events are likely to be cancelled
- Pregnant women will be told to avoid social contact with others too - sparking fresh fears for anyone expecting
- The PM refused to rule out drastic curfews like in other countries
- London is at the centre of the outbreak and was ahead of the rest of the country
- Schools will stay open for now - but they will be told to send kids with a cough home to stop the spread
Tap to see where COVID-19 is near you
The team warned even suppression of the virus has risks, as "we predict that transmission will quickly rebound if interventions are relaxed" and some tactics may need to therefore stay in place until a vaccine is available.
This morning England's Deputy Chief Medical Officer told Sky News it is "entirely plausible" the coronavirus pandemic could go on "for many months".
Officials said it is likely the extreme measures will have to stay in place until a vaccine is found in 12 to 18 months, otherwise the disease will return when lifted.
The change in advice came after new data from Italy showed the impact on the health service has been more severe than feared.
Prof Ferguson added: “It is likely such measures - most notably, large scale social distancing - will need to be in place for many months - perhaps until a vaccine becomes available. The effects on countries and the world will be profound.
"[It] was suppressed in China but we have no reason to believe its not what would happen if we did nothing. Slow spread would look at large number of deaths and health service being overwhelmed.
"These estimated were viewed as reasonable worst case. As information has been gathered in recent weeks, it's become clear its not the reasonable worst case, but the most likely scenario.
"We are left with no option to adopt this more draconian strategy. "
FIGHTING A WAR
Today is was announced the Ministry of Defence is planning to deploy 4,000 medics to help the struggling NHS deal with the coronavirus pandemic.
GPs, surgeons and nurses are being lined up as part of drastic measures to stop the spread of the killer bug.
It is feared many businesses will not survive the lockdown, as customers stay at home.
Today the UK Association of British Insurers said in a statement standard business insurance would not cover forced closures by authorities due to COVID-19.
In dramatic actions not seen since World War Two, the PM drastically ramped up Britain's battleplan yesterday - shutting down mass gatherings and urging everyone to stop non-essential travel and contact with others.
He said that means all Brits (around 66million people) staying out of pubs, clubs, theatres and cinemas for weeks - and potentially months into the summer. All who can can should work from home, he said.
The over 70s, those who are pregnant, and anyone with underlying health conditions (around 20million Brits) should try not to leave their homes if they can, and avoid crowded spaces immediately.
This will continue for the "long haul" - likely weeks or months.
And those with severe illnesses like cancer (around 1.4million Brits) must start cocooning themselves in their homes and get food delivered in from this weekend.
The number of cases could DOUBLE every five or six days if Britain doesn't take "draconian" action now, the PM warned the country, in the most drastic action taken so far to tackle the disease.
Levelling with a worried nation in a dramatic No10 press conference, Boris said: "Clearly what we’re announcing today is a very substantial change in the way we want people to live their lives, and I can’t remember anything like it in my lifetime.
"I don’t think there’s really been anything like it in peacetime.
"It’s a very considerable, psychological, behavioural change that we’re asking you, we’re asking the public, the nation to do.
"But I’ve absolutely no doubt that we can do it, that we can do it together."
But a lack of advice for schools amid the coronavirus pandemic is creating "chaos and confusion" and placing "intolerable pressure" on staff, a teachers' union warned.
The NASUWT, which represents teachers and head teachers, said there was a "rising sense of panic" as it called for a definitive decision on how to protect staff and pupils.
Mr Johnson stopped short of announcing school closures as he unveiled unprecedented peacetime measures to try to control the spread of Covid-19 on Monday.
MOST READ IN NEWS
It came as President Emmanuel Macron tonight announced a total shutdown of France with its borders closed and all social gatherings banned from tomorrow.
The lockdown will be enforceable by law - unlike in Britain.
And Donald Trump recommended a drastic shutdown of the US too - with the President even considering a nationwide curfew.
