Drastic restrictions could last for 18 MONTHS to save hundreds of thousands of Brits, experts warn
DRASTIC restrictions will be required for up to 18 months if hundreds of thousands of British lives are to be saved, experts have warned.
Researchers who advised the Government on today's curbs estimate 260,000 people will have died under the previous, more relaxed, plans.
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But the team from Imperial College London said the tighter controls, which aim to reverse the outbreak, could limit deaths to just a few thousand.
They said it is likely the extreme measures will have to stay in place until a vaccine is found in 12 to 18 months, otherwise the disease will return when lifted.
Prof Neil Ferguson said: “The aim is not to slow the rate of growth of cases, but actually pull the epidemic into reverse.
“Instead of talking about hundreds of thousands of deaths, we are talking about hopefully tens of thousands of deaths.
“Maybe, depending on how early we are, just a few thousand.”
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The researchers believe the previous plan to control but not eliminate the virus would have reduced the burden on the NHS by two thirds and cut deaths by half.
But 260,000 people will likely still have died and the NHS would have been severely overburdened.
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The change in advice came after new data from Italy showed the impact on the health service has been more severe than feared.
Prof Ferguson added: “It is likely such measures - most notably, large scale social distancing - will need to be in place for many months - perhaps until a vaccine becomes available.
“The effects on countries and the world will be profound.”
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