VIRAL SPREAD
Widespread coronavirus outbreak across UK is ‘highly likely’, top health official warns
KILLER coronavirus is "highly likely" to become widespread across Britain, a top health official has warned.
The illness has already infected 36 people in the UK as more cases occur among those with no links to overseas outbreaks.
Read our coronavirus live blog for all the latest news and updates
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Public Health England's former medical director Paul Cosford today warned that Brits need to "be prepared" for further cases.
Asked on BBC Breakfast if widespread infection was inevitable, he said: "I wouldn't say it's inevitable but it is now highly likely."
He then appeared on Good Morning Britain, where he said: "The extent of infection we are seeing in other countries suggests it is likely that we will see more widespread infection in the UK and that is what we have to be prepared for.
"We should expect at times that might be quite challenging for us, it is therefore very important that we do everything we can to reduce the spread of infection.
"At the moment, the vast majority of cases we see in the UK are still linked to countries where there is more widespread infection, either in Italy or south east Asia.
It could happen in the next few days or it could take a little longer
Paul Cosford
"It is true to say there is a small number now where it is much more difficult to find that link, and that is leading us to think we may well see more widespread infection in the UK fairly soon.
"It could happen in the next few days or it could take a little longer."
Prof Cosford was also interviewed for Radio 4's Today programme, where he said it was increasingly likely there would be more widespread transmission.
He also called on the public to take simple steps such as washing their hands and throwing away used tissues.
Be prepared
Prof Cosford said: "I think the increase in number that we are seeing, coupled with the increases in countries nearby in Europe and of course in South East Asia, do make it much more likely we will get more widespread transmission in the UK.
"It's still the case that the vast majority of the cases we've got in the UK, we can trace a link to countries where there's infection and people returning from those countries, but we've not been able to identify that in every single case now, so that's something we are looking at extremely carefully to understand where the source of those infections may be.
"I think we now have to expect there to be more widespread infection in the UK that we will need to deal with.
"We've got to be prepared for that, we're not there yet but we've got to be prepared for it, and it will give us some challenges."
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He said, however, that it was important that people remembered the infection was mild in most cases.
"The vast majority of people will make a recovery from it and it is a relatively mild illness," he said.
"Children and otherwise healthy adults seem to be at much lower risk of getting into serious complications you get with this sort of disease.
"It's older people and people with severe underlying conditions that we will be particularly concerned about."
What to do if you're worried you've got coronavirus
The new coronavirus is continuing to sweep its way across the globe with Britain seeing more cases in people who aren't linked to outbreaks overseas.
Symptoms of Covid-19 can include:
- a cough
- a high temperature
- difficulty breathing
In most cases, you won't know whether you have a coronavirus or a different cold-causing virus.
But if a coronavirus infection spreads to the lower respiratory tract, it can cause pneumonia, especially in older people, people with heart disease or people with weakened immune systems.
It is incredibly contagious and is spread through contact with anything the virus is on as well as infected breath, coughs or sneezes.
The best way to prevent catching any form of coronavirus is to practice good hygiene.
If you have cold-like symptoms, you can help protect others by staying home when you are sick and avoiding contact with others.
You should also cover your mouth and nose with a tissue when you cough and sneeze then throw it away and wash your hands.
Cleaning and disinfecting objects and surfaces which you may have touched is also important.
If you have returned from Wuhan in the last 14 days:
- Stay indoors and avoid contact with other people as you would with other flu viruses
- Call NHS 111 to inform them of your recent travel to the city
- your recent travel to the city
If you are in Northern Ireland, call your GP.
Please follow this advice even if you do not have symptoms of the virus.
Meanwhile, leading symptom-checking provider to the NHS has been updated to help identify patients' risk of having coronavirus.
Source: NHS
He warned that there will come a point "where we reduce social contact if we see more widespread transmission".
Asked whether it was OK still to offer handshakes, he said he thought so.
But he said the next stage of dealing with the outbreak could involve asking "people to isolate themselves at home if there's a member of their family who's infected".
He added: "We may well get to a position where we say carry on going to school, carry on going to work but if you can work from home that's a very sensible thing to do, and think of all the different ways you can reduce your social contact outside of those activities."
Meanwhile an infectious disease expert has warned that 100,000 Brits could die from Covid-19.
Professor Paul Hunter, an expert in infectious diseases, told This Morning: “I’m substantially less optimistic than I was six weeks ago… I think it’s pretty close to inevitable [that we’ll see a global spread]."
He went on to estimate that there could be close to “one hundred thousand fatalities” in the UK and with the virus continuing "into the summer".
Prof Hunter added: “Personally, I don’t think it will disappear completely and I think we will see a resurgence of it come winter, early next year, and hopefully by then we’ll have a vaccine to protect our most vulnerable people.”
It comes after official papers, seen by The Sun, last week revealed four in five Brits could become infected by the deadly coronavirus.
Ministers are now considering the assumption that more than 50million people in the UK could catch the killer bug.
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Today the Prime Minister held an emergency Cobra meeting on coronavirus where he was expected to warn ministers that Covid-19 will present a "significant challenge" to the country.
Boris Johnson said the spread of the coronavirus was "likely" to become "more significant" for the UK in the coming days.
He said: "We have also agreed a plan so that if and when it starts to spread, as I'm afraid it looks likely it will, we are in a position to take the steps necessary to... contain the spread of the disease as far as we can, and to protect the most vulnerable.
"We will be announcing that plan not just tomorrow but in the days and weeks ahead as the thing develops.";
Scotland's First Minster Nicola Sturgeon has said the country is in the "containment phases" of dealing with coronavirus.
Speaking at St Andrew's House in Edinburgh alongside Health Secretary Jeane Freeman and Scotland's Chief Medical Officer Dr Catherine Calderwood, she said Scotland was not at the stage of having to cancel major events.
She said: "We are not at that stage yet and decisions about if and when we reach that stage and what the implications will be will be guided very firmly by the scientific advice the four governments are receiving."
'Inevitable spread'
Meanwhile the Health Secretary admitted it was "inevitable" coronavirus would continue to spread.
Matt Hancock would not rule out following China's lead in shutting down cities if the Covid-19 outbreak escalates.
Three of the latest cases are family members of a man from Surrey who tested positive on Friday.
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He had no recent travel history and is the first person to contract Covid-19 within the UK.
All four are adults, including one more from Surrey and two from West Sussex.
Prof Whitty said another new patient, from Essex, had not recently travelled to an infected area.
He added investigations were ongoing as to whether the patient had contracted it "directly or indirectly" from someone who had recently travelled abroad.
New cases
Another case is a person from Bury, Greater Manchester, who was infected in Italy and has now been taken to a specialist NHS infection centre.
Three cases were confirmed in West Yorkshire, including two Leeds residents - who became infected in Iran - while one is from Bradford who had been in Italy.
Two of the new patients are from Hertfordshire, including a clinician at the Mount Vernon Cancer Centre, which is part of East and North Hertfordshire NHS Trust.
A statement from the trust said: "All individuals who were in contact with the clinician have been identified and the appropriate measures taken.
"The risk to patients and staff at Mount Vernon Cancer Centre is very low and we are working with individual patients to appropriately manage their care."
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One other case is from London and the other is from Gloucestershire and linked to a member of staff at a Tetbury school in the Cotswolds, who was identified on Saturday.
Debra Lapthorne, centre director for Public Health England (PHE) South West, said: "The two cases are linked and both became infected whilst in Northern Italy.
"Staff from PHE have continued to support St Mary's Primary School, Tetbury, where one of the cases works."
In a letter to parents, headteacher Mrs Jo Woolley said that while it was not necessary to close the school from a health perspective, it will close until at least Wednesday due to "operational difficulties" with staff members.
A staff member at an infant school in Berkshire was confirmed to have tested positive on Saturday.
In an email, Willow Bank Infant School headteacher Michelle Masters urged parents to "remain calm and follow the recommended hygiene procedures".
Emergency powers
On Sunday, the Department of Health and Social Care announced every department will have a ministerial lead on the virus, and a cross-Whitehall "war room" is being set up to roll out an enhanced public information campaign.
Emergency powers designed to restrict Covid-19 if it becomes endemic, due to be announced this week, would only be "temporary", said Mr Hancock.
He confirmed that "population distancing measures", such as banning public gatherings and cancelling football matches, could be considered by the Government, while closing schools may be "necessary".
The Foreign Office confirmed that non-essential staff, as well as dependants, are to be pulled out of the British Embassy in Tehran.
The Republic of Ireland reported its first case on Saturday, with a secondary school to be closed for 14 days after authorities identified its pupils and teachers as having been in contact with the male patient.
Globally, the number of people killed worldwide by the virus exceeds 3,000 and there have been almost 90,000 confirmed cases.
MORE ON CORONAVIRUS
While most patients only have mild symptoms, Covid-19 appears to be much more deadly than seasonal flu.
In Italy, which has the most cases in Europe, the number of infections doubled in 48 hours over the weekend.
Italy now has 1,694 confirmed cases and has seen 34 deaths.
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