Now it’s a whole new brawl game as Brexit trade talks head for a mighty smash
THIS is the first day of the rest of our lives. Britain is out of the EU.
But don’t think you’ve seen the last of Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator. The UK and the EU still have a trade deal to sort out and those talks are currently heading for a mighty smash.
The two sides are far apart, as we will see on Monday when they both set out their negotiating position.
But they only have until the end of the year to reach agreement, with Boris Johnson determined not to extend the transition period into 2021.
The UK thinks the EU doesn’t realise how much has changed over the past few months. One Downing Street source tells me that the EU’s strategy is to: “Deploy the same strategy of the last three years.”
They fear the EU has not clocked that this will be a very different negotiation because Boris has a majority in Parliament and wants a free trade deal, and nothing more.
BLOW UP
One of those involved in preparing the Government for the trade negotiations with the EU says that Barnier’s comments in his various recent appearance indicate he still thinks he can get the UK to sign up to various things — such as a role for the European Court of Justice — that it simply won’t.
If this doesn’t change, then the talks are going to blow up almost as soon as they start in March. Downing Street’s view is that they, “won’t be asking the EU for anything that they haven’t done before”.
So, there is no justification for the EU demanding that the UK align with EU rules on state aid, environmental standards or anything else. If the EU does try to insist on that, there just won’t be a trade agreement.
This Government accepts there will be “friction” at the border, that trade with the EU will not carry on as seamlessly as before once we have left.
Once you have accepted that, as a well-informed government insider points out, there is not actually that much difference between a simple free trade deal and trading with the EU on World Trade Organisation terms. This means the price for Boris Johnson of walking away from the talks is not that high.
MOMENT OF PROFOUND DIFFICULTY
The danger is that the EU thinks that Boris Johnson will, ultimately, take what they offer, as Theresa May so often did.
So they won’t realise he means what he says until it is too late. As one influential Government source warns: “Even if there was perfect mutual comprehension there would still be a moment of profound difficulty.”
In a way, the blow up between the UK and the EU cannot come soon enough. It needs to happen before the two sides can start having a more realistic negotiation.
In the past, Michel Barnier has said that a Canada-style deal is available for the UK if the Irish border problem can be resolved.
Well, last October’s deal did that. So the EU should now offer the UK the Canada-style deal that Boris Johnson wants. If they don’t, then the chances of there not being a deal at all will shoot up.
Tories plan to build on success
NUMBER 10 thinks that now is the moment to take difficult decisions.
There are four years to go until the next election, the Tory parliamentary party is not in rebellious mood and Boris Johnson is still enjoying his political honeymoon – the Tories are currently polling at 49 per cent, five points up since the General Election.
A confidant of Boris Johnson tells me that you want to: “Take the toughest decisions when you are at your strongest”.
One of the first political hot potatoes the Government intends to grasp is reform of the planning system. I understand a planning white paper is close to being finalised. The Tory manifesto said little about planning reform. But I understand No10’s plan is to hugely simplify the system, with land either being allowed to be developed or not.
Local authorities would not be able to block new housing on land that had been marked for development. One well-informed source tells me the aim is to: “Build the foundations of the next five years.”
Inside government, the hope is that changing the planning rules can help further boost the number of houses being built. This is of vital long-term importance for the Tories. At the last election they trailed Labour badly among the under-40s. One of the reasons for this was how few of this group own their own homes.
Reviving the property-owning democracy is absolutely vital to the Tories’ future.
I am told the Government is also very keen to promote tree-lined streets.
It believes that much of the opposition to new developments is driven by how ugly so many of them are. Their hope is that attractive, leafy streets will be more popular.
BORIS HAS SCOT TO ACT FAST
NICOLA STURGEON is not going to let her demands for a second independence referendum drop.
This week she got the Scottish Parliament to vote in favour of it, and with a poll this week suggesting that her side is ahead, she will carry on pushing.
This government will continue to refuse her demands, though. It is confident that if she tried to go for any kind of consultative referendum, the courts would block it.
But it also knows it has to create a new case for the Union and reduce support for independence that way.
Boris Johnson will continue to attack the SNP’s domestic record. But the Government must do more to show Scottish voters the benefits of the Union.
The idea of supporting Scottish students at universities in the rest of the UK is sensible. But more ideas like this are needed, and fast.
MPs have growing doubts about moving out
IN the last Parliament, MPs voted to move out of the Palace of Westminster to allow the Commons to be refurbished.
But MPs tell me there is a growing backlash to this decision.
One senior Tory backbencher says: “People are beginning to get cold feet.”
There is mounting concern that the cost of the project will end up exceeding the £4.5billion that was previously regarded as the upper limit. MPs have also been put off by how unsightly the works on Elizabeth Tower, which houses Big Ben, have been.
I am told that the, “balance is tipping in favour of remaining and doing it over a 30-year period”.
Intriguingly, Downing Street itself is sympathetic to this position.
MOST READ IN COMMENT
NO10 TWITTER ATTACK
DOWNING Street has told all departments to get quicker at rebutting stories the Government doesn’t believe to be accurate.
I understand that No10 itself is planning to use the @Number10Press Twitter account to take issue with stories it doesn’t think are right. I am informed that Dominic Cummings, pictured, the PM’s senior adviser, and the No10 communications director Lee Cain will take charge of the account.
Government aides have also been told that when they meet journalists, they will be obliged to pay for their share of any hospitality received, whether it be a coffee or a three-course meal.
This decision will not be popular. But it is part of No10’s plan to try to control the flow of information.
- James Forsyth is political editor of The Spectator.