We are headed for the worst house sales slump in 20 years in EVERY part of the UK
HOUSE sales are expected to slump in the next three months as surveyors' expectations fall to their lowest in 20 years.
Around three in 10 (28 per cent) more surveyors quizzed by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (Rics) say they expect sales numbers to fall in the next three months rather than rise.
It's the most downbeat forecast since records began in 1999.
Sales expectations for the next three months are now either flat, with no change predicted, or negative, indicating falling sales, across all parts of the UK.
London and the south east are expected to be hardest hit, with more surveyors predicting sales will fall rather than rise (at 41 per cent and 40 per cent respectively).
The picture is also bleak in Northern Ireland and Scotland with more surveyors expecting falling sales than rising sales (21 per cent and 23 per cent respectively).
In Wales, 6 per cent more surveyors expect sales falls rather than rises.
The only region with a slightly positive outlook is the north west of England, where 2 per cent more surveyors predict rising sales compared to falls.
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Meanwhile stock levels on estate agents books remain close to record lows, currently standing at an average of just 42 properties per branch.
Rics says the supply of properties coming onto the market has been dwindling for six months.
And it seems buyers aren't interested either with new buyer inquiries falling for the fifth month in a row in December.
Will house prices rise or fall in 2019?
When it comes to house prices, Rics says increasing numbers of surveyors said they were seeing house prices fall rather than rise in December, marking the fourth month in a row of negative house price readings.
As well as Brexit uncertainty, problems relating to lack of supply and affordable property continue to affect the market.
But looking further ahead, surveyors are a little more upbeat in their sales expectations for 12 months' time, suggesting that some of the near-term pessimism will end once we know what form of Brexit the UK will end up with.
Simon Rubinsohn, Rics chief economist, said: "It is hardly a surprise with ongoing uncertainty about the path to Brexit dominating the news agenda, that even allowing for the normal patterns around the Christmas holidays, buyer interest in purchasing property in December was subdued.
"This is also very clearly reflected in a worsening trend in near-term sales expectations.
"Looking a little further out, there is some comfort provided by the suggestion that transactions nationally should stabilise as some of the fog lifts, but that moment feels a way off for many respondents to the survey."
What are other house price surveys saying?
THERE a number of different surveys out there, so we've rounded-up what their most recent data says.
- Halifax: House prices rose by 1.3 per cent in 2018.
- Nationwide: House price growth slowed to 0.5 per cent in 2018.
- Office for National Statistics: Average house prices increased by 2.8 per cent in the year to November 2018 (December 2018 data isn't available yet).
Economic research firm, Capital Economics, agrees with Rics that the housing market will remain weak in 2019 due to Brexit uncertainty.
In its latest housing statement it said: "December’s Rics data support our view that the housing market will stay weak in 2019.
"Indeed, with Brexit uncertainty set to be extended, we expect little or no growth in transactions this year.
"Even if growth were to rebound in the second half of 2019, following some form of Brexit deal – the housing market will still be held back by high prices and rising interest rates."
But Jeremy Leaf, a north London estate agent and a former Rics residential chairman, reports more viewings than expected so far this year and stronger house price valuations.
He said: "We recorded better-than-expected viewings and valuations in early January, despite the Brexit uncertainty.
"On the one hand, the risk of uncertainty for the property market increases after yesterday’s vote but on the other, it helps to concentrate minds on all sides as the threat of a 'no deal’ rises, which was reflected in Sterling’s strengthening immediately after the result was announced."
Other house price indices report that prices still grew over 2018 despite the uncertainty.
Halifax reported a 1.3 per cent rise, while Nationwide posted a 0.5 per cent increase. And the Office for National Statistics posted a 2.8 per cent increase in the year to November 2018.
More on mortgages
But there is some good news for home buyers as seven major lenders, including Atom Bank, Barclays and Tesco, have cut rates for new borrowers and remortgagers this month.
Here's how to apply for a mortgage and boost your chances of getting accepted.
Plus, how to find the best mortgage if you’re a first-time buyer.
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