Markets in post-budget MELTDOWN as cost of government borrowing soars after Rachel Reeves’ £40billion tax bomb budget
MARKETS are in post-budget meltdown - as the cost of government borrowing soars after Rachel Reeves' £40billion tax bomb.
The cost of government borrowing has jumped again this morning and is now higher than after Liz Truss's 2022 mini-Budget.
Following the Autumn Budget, the pound fell sharply, UK stock markets slumped and gilt yields spiked.
The "trick and treat" Halloween package included:
- A freeze to fuel duty for a 15th consecutive year in a win for The Sun's Keep It Down campaign
- A penny off a pint by cutting draught beer duty, but raising booze taxes on other drinks
- A gloomy forecast of sluggish growth is a blow to Labour's flagship mission
- A stamp duty rise for second-home buyers of two percentage points
- A pay rise for millions as the minimum wage was increased by £1,400 a year
- A hike to a packet of cigarettes as smoking duties were raised
- A new tax on vapes ahead of the looming ban on disposable e-cigs
- Higher taxes on air passenger duty for private jets that hit the wealthy
- A benefits crackdown with Ms Reeves telling jobless Brits to "get back to work"
- An increase to the state pension of £473 next year through the triple lock
- An inheritance tax raid through freezing the rates people pay
- An increase to the Carer's Allowance to give cash to 60,000 more carers
Gilts are government bonds. A rise in the yield signals an increase in the cost of borrowing for the government.
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Gilt yields influence swap rates. Swap rates are based on what the markets think interest rates will be in the future.
Fixed-rate mortgage rates offered by banks to customers are usually based on swap rates.
Reeves tweaked debt rules to give herself headroom to borrow more – but the hike to borrowing has wiped this out.
The yields on benchmark 10-year bonds have risen to 0.072 to 4.5 per cent.
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This is higher than the 4.42 per cent yield in the mini-budget meltdown, which led to the downfall of Tory PM Liz Truss.
Analysts say the jump in bond yields is worrying - but market rout isn’t yet close to the scale of the Liz Truss meltdown.
Bonds were already trading higher to begin with and it was the speed with which investors dumped bonds and sterling that caused chaos under Truss.
However, the problem is it makes the cost of government debt much more expensive.
At the current level it wipes out the extra financial headroom the Chancellor gave herself for investment from changing the debt rules.
It is also embarrassing for the Chancellor who built her run-up to No.11 entirely on being the opposite to the Liz Truss and her irresponsible Budget.
Treasury Secretary Darren Jones said the Office for Budget Responsibility had given a “vote of confidence” in the Budget - including Reeves's borrowing.
Jones told Radio 4's Today programme: "There are very strong fiscal rules in place.
"There are guardrails that ensure that every pound of taxpayer’s money is well spent and investment is being spent well."
But Jones tried to sidestep questions on how the market was judging the Budget - and whether traders were betting against the Labour government.
He said: "I don’t think so, you’d have to ask people who participate in the market."
Top asset manager Stephen Innes said: "The not-so-affectionately dubbed 'bond vigilantes' are back in action.
"They are flexing their muscles and driving yields higher across the developed markets."
He added: "These hawkish bond enforcers aren’t just making waves;
"They’re sending a clear, no-nonsense message to what they view as spend-happy governments: fiscal discipline is overdue.
"With steely resolve, they’re calling the shots, reminding policymakers that the days of freewheeling spending may be on borrowed time."
Before lunchtime the gilt yields started to ease to 4.3 per cent, providing some relief for the Chancellor. But after US financial markets opened they rose again and are currently trading at 4.47 per cent.
The pound has strengthened against the dollar, back to $1.30 from $1.28 yesterday, helped by US economic figures that showed a cooling jobs market.
It comes after a major bank cut mortgage rates as markets wobble following the Budget.
Santander has reduced all of its residential, new build and buy-to-let mortgage rates by up to 0.36%.
Despite the market wobbles, Santander has powered ahead with cuts to mortgage rates.
Santander's mortgage chief Graham Sellar said: "There is some uncertainty in the market around mortgage pricing.
"So it’s great to be able to offer borrowers access to lower rates across all of our residential, new build and buy-to-let mortgage products."
Not every high street lender is moving in the same direction though.
Virgin Money said it would be increasing its mortgage rates by up to 0.15% today.
However, brokers have said it's too early to know whether this is a trend.
Accord Mortgages also announced reductions at the same time ahead of Santander's move.
MPowered and LiveMore have also written to brokers that it is pulling products today amid rising swap rates as markets react to the Budget.
Specialist lender MPowered said: “Due to the rise in swap rates, we’ll be revising our fixed rate products at 5.30pm Friday, November 1."
The Sun has contacted all the major lenders to find out what they're planning to do with rates.
What do the experts say?
Swap rates over the coming days are expected to reveal the direction of travel ahead of the Bank of England base rate decision next week.
They took an initial uptick on Wednesday in the immediate aftermath of the Budget.
Ben Perks, managing director at Orchard Financial Advisers pointed out: "The reductions from Santander will have been priced in ‘pre-Budget’ and it’s encouraging that nothing they heard [in the Budget] deterred them.
"As long as swap rates don’t rocket skyward, more lenders should reduce over the coming weeks."
Nicholas Mendes of John Charcol said: "The OBR report makes for interesting reading, though several variables still need to play out.
"While it highlights important points regarding inflation and its potential impact on future bank rate movements, there's still uncertainty ahead."
He said that the upcoming MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) meeting on November 7 will be "particularly noteworthy".
The Bank of England meets roughly every six weeks to vote on whether to increase, hold or lower the base rate - this then affects loans, savings rates and mortgages.
Not only for the voting split among members but also for the insights in the meeting notes.
Mr Mendes continued: "Though recent forecasts have slightly downplayed the likelihood of a rate cut in December, markets are still anticipating reductions beginning in February 2025.
"Historically, markets react swiftly, then settle, often bringing renewed optimism.
"This is why brokers and lenders will be closely monitoring market conditions to adjust mortgage pricing accordingly over the next few weeks."
What does it mean for your mortgage?
Interest rates are still expected to fall in the medium term, but may be at a slower pace than previously expected said Mr Mendes.
He said: "I expect the downward trend in mortgage rates to resume before year-end, potentially returning to the best rates we've seen recently, with further improvements anticipated next year.
"It’s also important for borrowers to remember that current fixed mortgage rates already incorporate some expected bank rate cuts for the coming year.
"Consequently, I remain optimistic that the lowest fixed rates will stabilise around the low 3% range next year, despite recent adjustments."
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He said his advice for those nearing the end of their fixed rate remains to avoid delaying in hopes that rates will return to levels seen a few weeks ago.
"Secure a deal now and review it continually. While we're optimistic about downward repricing, the pace and trajectory remain uncertain," he said.
The People's Verdict
Business owners, families and working Brits have given their verdict on Rachel Reeves' £40billion tax bomb budget.
The Chancellor today used the first Labour Budget in almost 15 years to hike National Insurance contributions from businesses by 1.2 per cent - in a £25bn raid on firms.
The extra levy is the equivalent of £800 per employee, while investment firm AJ Bell said the cost of hiring a new staff member would rise by £2,300.
The first female Chancellor also announced a reduction to the threshold businesses start paying NICs from £9,100 to £5,000.
It raised fears that workers will bear the brunt of the increase and sparked accusations it breaches the party’s manifesto pledge not to raise taxes for working people.
The National Living Wage will also rise by more than six per cent - triple the rate of inflation - to £12.21 an hour for over-21s.
It means millions will get a huge pay boost, though some firms say the rise will push up costs.
Meanwhile, the NHS will get a huge £22billion investment in a bid to fast-track improvements and reduce record-high waiting lists.
Business owners, tradies, students and workers across the country have given their verdict on the measures, telling The Sun that higher tax rates could trigger a string of consequences for their lives.
They include toolmaker Conrad Pearson, who warned Reeves' measures would cause him to cut someone from his five-strong toolmaking team.
He said: “As soon as this was announced one of my lads said I’d have to pay him more, otherwise unskilled and less experienced staff would be catching him up."
