Autumn budget 2024: When Chancellor Rachel Reeves will make her statement plus expert predictions

THE Chancellor announced that this year’s Autumn Statement will take place on Wednesday, October 30.

The Autumn Statement provides an update on the government's economic plans, based on forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).

As part of this, the Chancellor updates all the MPs in parliament about the government’s tax and spending plans for the year ahead.

This means that we learn what’s going to happen to things like fuel duty, income tax, and even the cost of a pint.

In August, the Prime Minister today warned of a "painful" Autumn Budget laying the groundwork for tax hikes.

Sir Keir Starmer said: “There is a Budget coming in October and it is going to be painful.

"We have no other choice given the situation we are in.”

He added that the country needed to accept "short-term pain for long-term good" but committed to previous promises not to hike National Insurance, income tax and VAT, as well as protecting the State Pension triple lock.

It’s one of the biggest days in the economic calendar and this year, experts are predicting that chancellor Rachel Reeves will announce significant tax changes to try and plug the £22billion black hole in the country’s finances.

Ms Reeves previously warned MPs that her fiscal statement would involve "difficult decisions across spending, welfare and tax".

Likely candidates for tax raids include changes to Inheritance Tax, Capital Gains Tax (CGT), pensions, and VAT exemptions.

The Treasury has said: “The Chancellor has been clear that difficult decisions lie ahead on spending, welfare and tax to fix the foundations of our economy and address the £22billion hole in the public finances left by the last government.”

Here are the predicted changes to watch out for.

Inheritance tax

It is widely expected that the Chancellor will announce changes to inheritance tax in her statement.

This is the tax that is paid on the value of someone’s estate after they die. 

The standard rate for inheritance tax is 40%. However, there is speculation that the government might increase the rate, or the thresholds could be lowered, meaning more people would be subject to the tax.

Additionally, Labour may consider shortening the period before death during which gifts can be made without triggering inheritance tax.

Pensions

Labour previously said it would reintroduce the Lifetime Allowance for pensions, which caps the total amount you can save into your pot tax-free.

This proposal was dropped at the last minute during the election campaign, but Labour may consider other pension tax reforms instead.

Ms Reeves has previously campaigned to reduce the tax relief that higher earners get on their pension, and to instead introduce a flat rate of 33%.

Currently, you get tax relief at your marginal rate of tax, so a flat rate of 33% would mean higher earners would get less relief.

This has led some financial commentators to speculate that this reform could be in scope for the Autumn Statement or future budgets.

Another possible target is changing the rules around pensions and inheritance tax.

Currently, pensions are not counted as part of someone’s estate when they die and can therefore be passed on inheritance tax-free. It’s possible that this could be reviewed.

Capital gains tax

You pay CGT when you sell an asset that has appreciated in value, such as stocks, shares, a second home, or valuable artwork.

Currently, the first £3,000 of profits (or £1,500 for trusts) is tax-free.

However, some experts are predicting that this allowance could be scrapped entirely and that the tax could be extended to include other assets.

Business rates

Business rates are levied on properties that aren't first homes, including shops, offices, pubs, warehouses, factories, holiday rental homes, and guest houses.

During the election campaign, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer pledged to overhaul the system to support small businesses. These changes could be announced in the Autumn Statement.

One potential reform could involve basing the rates on the value of the land, rather than the current estimated annual rental costs.

Winter fuel payments

Ms Reeves has already confirmed that universal winter fuel payments will be slashed, starting from this year.

In the past, winter fuel payments have been made available to everyone above state pension age. But now, the money will only be available for people who receive certain benefits.

Households with someone over the state pension age receiving means-tested benefits including Pension Credit, Universal Credit and income support will still receive the cash.

It will be worth £200 for eligible households, or £300 for eligible households with someone aged over 80.

Fuel duty

The Treasury has refused to rule out a rise in fuel duty, which could prove a shock to household finances.

The levy hasn’t risen since 2011 and was even slashed by 5p in March 2022.

It was The Sun’s Keep It Down campaign that secured a 12-month extension to the ­temporary fuel duty cut in March last year.

Motor association the AA has warned that for low-paid workers, losing this tax relief could result in an additional £171.60 in annual fuel costs.

Stamp duty

Anyone buying a property or piece of land over a certain price has to pay a lump sum known as the Stamp duty land tax (SDLT).

The tax applies in England and Northern Ireland, with separate property tax schemes running in Scotland and Wales.

Stamp Duty is usually paid on increasing portions of the property price when you buy residential property, like a house or flat.

It only applies to properties over £250,000 and the amount you pay depends on how much you paid for the property, when you bought it, and whether you’re eligible for relief or an exemption.

You don't have to pay any stamp duty on a property valued up to £250,000, which rises to £425,000 for first-time buyers.

The current system is understood to discourage people from moving houses and is part of the reason older people aren't moving out of expensive, larger properties.

In 2022, the Conservatives introduced a further stamp duty cut for first-time buyers.

The cut means that wannabe homeowners buying houses over a certain amount won't have to pay tax on it.

This saw the threshold rise from £300,000 to £425,000, but it was due to end on March 31, 2025.

The Chancellor could change the tax so it's based on annual land value tax instead of on a transaction.

But it's thought this might be a tricky change to get past the party.

Household support fund

The household support fund was set up to help out families on low incomes with essential costs.

For example, you can go to your local council if you’re struggling to afford things like: 

• energy and water bills
• food
• essential items

While the support fund was due to close on September 30, but the government has extended it until at least April 2025.

Universal credit

Monthly standard allowance

• For those single and aged under 25, the standard allowance could rise from £311.68 to £316.98
• For those single and aged 25 or over, the standard allowance could rise from £393.45 to £400.14
• For joint claimants both under 25, the standard allowance will could from £489.23 to £497.55
• For joint claimants where one or both are 25 or over, the standard allowance could rise from £617.60 to £628.099

Extra amounts for children

• For those with a first child born before April 6, 2017, the extra amount could go up from £333.33 to £338.99
• For those with a child born on or after April 6, 2017 or second child and subsequent child, the extra amount could go up from £287.92 to £292.81
• For those with a disabled child, the lower rate addition payment could rise from £156.11 to £158.76 and the higher rate from £487.58 to £495.86

Extra amounts for limited capability for work

• For those deemed to have limited capability for work, the extra amount could go up from £156.11 to £158.76
• For those deemed to have limited capability for work or work-related activity, the extra amount could go up from £416.19 to £423.27

Extra amounts for being a carer

Universal Credit claimants can get an additional amount if they are caring for a severely disabled person for at least 35 hours a week.

The amount per month could rise from £198.31 to £201.68

The work allowance rates could also be set to rise in April.

Increased work allowance

• The higher work allowance (no housing amount) for someone claiming Universal Credit with one or more dependent children or limited capability for work could rise from £673 to £684.44
• The lower work allowance for someone claiming Universal Credit with one or more dependent children or limited capability for work could rise from £404 to £410.87

Housing benefit

Single person

• Has reached pension age: Increases from £235.20 to £239.20

Lone parent

• Has reached state pension age: Increases from £235.20 to £239.20

Couple

• One or both have reached pension age: Increases from £352 to £357.98

Other

• Dependent child/young person aged under 20: Increased from £83.24 to £84.66

Personal independence payments (PIP)

Personal independence payments (PIP) rates could rise by 1.7% in April.

PIP covers the extra cost of living for those living with illnesses or disabilities.

Payments for the daily living component could rise from £108.55 to £110.40 for enhanced and from £72.65 to £73.89 for standard.

The mobility component could also rise from £75.75 to £77.04 for enhanced and from £28.70 to £29.19 for standard.

Employment support allowance (ESA)

Employment Support Allowance (ESA) tops up workers' pay if they are on a low income.

Rates could change in April for those who are single and:

• Under 25-years-old, from £71.70 to £72.92
• Age 25 and older, from £90.50 to £92.04
• Lone parent under 18, from £71.70 to £72.92
• Lone parent 18 or over, from £90.50 to £92.04

Those in a couple could also see their rates increase:

• Both under 18-years-old, from £71.70 to £72.92
• Both under 18 years old with a child, from £108.30 to £110.14
• Both over 18, from £142.25 to £144.67
• Under 25, partner under 18, from £71.70 to £72.92
• Claimant 25 or over, partner under 18, from £90.50 to £92.04

There are also further rates for those with disabilities or caring responsibilities.

Check out the Government's website for more details.

Attendance allowance

Attendance Allowance helps with the extra costs incurred when you have a disability severe enough to require someone to assist in looking after you.

It’s paid at two different  — the amount you get depends on the level of care you need.

The higher rate could go up from £108.55 to £110.40 in April, while the lower rate could also rise from £72.65 to £73.89.

Pension credit

Guaranteed pension credit payments could increase from £218.15 a week to £221.86, or £332.95 to £338.61 for couples.

It is possible to also get the "Savings Credit"; part of pension credit if both of the following apply:

• You reached state pension age before April 6, 2016
• You saved some money for retirement, for example, a personal or workplace pension

This aspect of pension credit could rise from £17.01 a week to £17.30, or for couples, from £19.04 to £19.36.

Disability living allowance (DLA)

The Disability Living Allowance for disabled people is being replaced by Personal Independence Payment (PIP).

Only people under the age of 16 can apply for DLA Older people whose DLA claim hasn't come to an end may see payments go up.

• Highest amount could increase from £108.55 to £110.40
• Middle amount could increase from £72.65 to £73.89
• Lowest amount could increase from £28.70 to £29.19

And for the mobility component: