CRITICAL CONDITION
‘We’re hurtling towards another winter crisis,’ experts warn as NHS figures show A&E is busier than ever
Stats show ambulance and A&E delays are increasing already
THE NHS is “in bad shape for winter”, experts warn as figures show A&E departments are busier than ever.
The Royal College of Nursing said the health service is “hurtling towards another winter crisis”.
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Hospitals and ambulance services are plunged into difficulty every year and this season is set to bring more of the same.
Medical director of NHS England, Professor Sir Stephen Powis, admitted it will be “incredibly busy”.
Last year, three in 10 casualty visitors waited more than four hours to be seen and a near-record 54,000 languished for 12 hours or more in January.
NHS statistics showed today that 2.21million people went to A&E last month, the highest ever for September.
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It follows the busiest summer on record and comes before winter coughs and colds set in.
The NHS is approaching winter in bad shape. Patient care continues to fall short of expectations
Siva Anandaciva
Ambulance delays and A&E waits have already begun to get worse, the latest data show.
And stats from the UK Health Security Agency show the number of people admitted to hospital with Covid is increasing, from a rate of 3.72 per 100,000 people last week to 4.55 per 100,000.
Siva Anandaciva, of the King’s Fund think-tank, said: “The NHS is approaching winter in bad shape.
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“Industrial action is continuing, financial pressures are rising, and important performance targets continue to be missed.
“Patient care continues to fall short of expectations.”
'Trade-offs' between crisis management and reform
Ministers say they are preparing for winter but Health Secretary Wes Streeting has pledged to stop the health service burning cash to cope with daily demands.
Mr Anandaciva added: “NHS services will have to make harsh trade-offs between immediate winter preparations and longer-term improvement.”
Surgery waiting lists remain stubbornly high, rising to 7.64million in August.
Patricia Marquis, director at the Royal College of Nursing, said: “The NHS appears to be hurtling towards another corridor care crisis this winter.
“Without intervention, the government's next 100 days will be defined by patients crammed into fire escapes, store cupboards and corridors.
“The government's long-term reforms to the NHS are necessary, but patients and nursing staff also need action in the here and now.”
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Saffron Cordery, of NHS Providers which represents hospital bosses, said: “The NHS has had its busiest ever summer and is heading for another tough winter.”
Health minister Karin Smyth said: “We have laid out our plans with NHS England to make sure the system is prepared for winter.”
TIMELINE OF THE NHS WAITING LIST
THE NHS waiting list in England has become a political flashpoint as it has ballooned in recent years, more than doubling in a decade.
The statistics for England count the number of procedures, such as operations and non-surgical treatments, that are due to patients.
The procedures are known as elective treatment because they are planned and not emergencies. Many are routine ops such as for hip or knee replacements, cataracts or kidney stones, but the numbers also include some cancer treatments.
This is how the wait list has changed over time:
August 2007: 4.19million – The first entry in current records.
December 2009: 2.32million – The smallest waiting list on modern record.
April 2013: 2.75million – The Conservative and Liberal Democrat coalition restructures the NHS. Current chancellor Jeremy Hunt was Health Secretary.
April 2016: 3.79million – Junior doctors go on strike for the first time in 40 years. Theresa May is elected Prime Minister.
February 2020: 4.57million – The final month before the UK's first Covid lockdown in March 2020.
July 2021: 5.61million – The end of all legal Covid restrictions in the UK.
January 2023: 7.21million – New Prime Minister Rishi Sunak pledges to reduce waiting lists within a year, effectively April 2024.
September 2023: 7.77million – The highest figure on record comes during a year hit with strikes by junior doctors, consultants, nurses and ambulance workers.
February 2024: 7.54million – Ministers admit the pledge to cut the backlog has failed.
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