UK could see ‘explosion’ of mpox cases in just TWO WEEKS – as threat of ‘double outbreak’ grows

THE UK is poised to see an outbreak of the new, more dangerous variant of mpox in just two weeks, an infectious disease expert has warned.

Paul Hunter, a professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia, told The Sun he would "bet on" cases emerging in the UK in the coming fortnight as the disease develops and people with symptoms seek medical treatment.

The mutant strain of mpox, known as clade 1b, has spread rapidly from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) to several neighbouring countries,  prompting the World Health Organisation (WHO) to declare a global health emergency.

The first case to be detected outside the continent was spotted in Sweden last week, prompting the NHS to put itself on high alert for cases in the UK.

However, Prof Paul said it's "likely that we’ve got infections already in Britain," that are spreading under the radar.

This is because the first visual symptoms of the disease - like lesions - don't emerge for at least 12 days after infection, meaning most don't seek medical treatment until around the 13th day.

"If someone got infected with clade 1b today we almost certainly wouldn't know about it for at least two weeks afterwards - probably three," he said.

Because of this lag in results, we are likely to see cases emerging in the UK within the next two weeks, the expert explained.

"I would bet on this," he said, "but I can't say for certain."

The UK is already seeing a rise in cases of another variant, clade 2 mpox - which triggered the last global health emergency in 2022.

It’s a milder version of the disease, typically spread through sexual contact, and has largely spread among men who have sex with men.

In July, there were 43 confirmed or 'highly probable' cases of the clade 2 mpox variant detected in England - up from 17 in June, according to UK Health Security Data (UKHSA).

The only way to tell these clades apart is to send samples of the virus off for laboratory testing - which takes around a week - so there is a chance some of these cases could be clade 1b, Prof Paul said.

'DOUBLE OUTBREAK'

Additionally, the expert cautioned there is a potential risk of both clades "surging at the same time," which could lead to a double outbreak of mpox.

"This could happen if both clades affected different populations, [for instance]... if one affected female sex workers and the other, men who slept with men," he explained.

However, if they affect the same group it's likely one would cancel the other out.

"It's a bit like what happens when a new Covid variant comes along and all the other variants disappear because they just can't compete with it," he said.

INTERNATIONAL EMERGENCY

Mpox – previously known as monkeypox – sparked an international health emergency in 2022, when it spread to more than 100 countries.

Although the DRC has been tackling an epidemic of clade 1 for years, in September the virus mutated into a new strain named clade 1b.

This variant is much deadlier, however. It is said to have a mortality rate of up to 10 per cent and is particularly dangerous to children.

Clade 1b has already been reported in neighbouring countries including Rwanda, Burundi, and Uganda, as well as the case in Sweden.

The disease has already killed at least 500 people and infected 13,700, according to African Health authorities.

The map above reveals the 15 countries where the bug has been found so far.

The UKHSA has advised those intending to travel to an affected area to seek health advice from their GP.

“Those travelling to areas affected by the ongoing outbreak should take sensible precautions to protect themselves from the risk of infection,” said Dr Mary Ramsay, Director of Public Health Programmes at UKHSA told the Sun.

“Currently the risk to most travellers is small, and vaccination against mpox infection is not recommended for the majority of people.” 

The NHS offers the smallpox (MVA) vaccine to people who are most likely to be exposed to mpox.

This includes healthcare workers looking after patients with suspected or confirmed mpox, men who sleep with men and people who have been in close contact with a suspected case.