Dementia cases set to TRIPLE by 2050 – the 6 early warning signs to watch for
DEMENTIA cases worldwide are set to triple by 2050, researchers warn.
The devastating illness could impact 153 million people in 2050, against the 57 million in 2019.
In the UK, the number of dementia cases is projected to increase by 75 per cent, from just over 907,000 in 2019 to almost 1.6 million in 2050.
But this is relatively small compared to places with the largest growth estimates, of 367 per cent in north Africa and the Middle East and 357 per cent in eastern sub-Saharan Africa.
The study, published in The Lancet Public Health, should be a “wake-up call”, charities said.
Dementia is an umbrella term for the deterioration of mental ability so severe that it impacts daily life, causing problems with memory, behaviour and coordination, to name a few.
There are several types, with Alzheimer’s being the most common and accounting for up to 80 per cent of all dementia cases.
Researchers suggest dementia prevalence will increase due to population growth and population ageing.
They looked at four risk factors for dementia – smoking, obesity, high blood sugar, and low education – and the impact they will have on future trends.
Such factors are linked with the development of dementia, which is why a healthy lifestyle - one that primarily focuses on keeping the heart healthy - is encouraged to slash the risks.
Most read in Health
While improvements in education access will slow growth, it will be countered by growing rates of obesity, high blood sugar and smoking.
The smallest estimated increases in dementia cases are predicted in high-income Asia Pacific (53 per cent) and western Europe (74 per cent), the study suggests.
Relatively small increases in cases are also expected in Greece (45 per cent), Italy (56 per cent), Finland (58 per cent), Sweden (62 per cent), and Germany (65 per cent).
TAKE STEPS TODAY
Commenting on the findings, Hilary Evans, Chief Executive of Alzheimer’s Research UK, said: “These striking figures lay bare the shocking scale of dementia across the world.
“Dementia doesn’t just affect individuals, it can devastate whole families and networks of friends and loved ones.
“The heartbreaking personal cost of dementia goes hand-in-hand with huge economic and societal impacts, strengthening the case to governments across the world to do more to protect lives now and in the future.
“During the pandemic, we’ve seen how the right investment and leadership can enable innovative approaches to fast-track life-saving vaccines for Covid-19.
“We must see that same bold, coordinated and ambitious action to make the UK a world-leader to overcome dementia.”
Ms Evans said it was a “wakeup call for us all” that almost seven million new global cases could be down to poor heart health from smoking, obesity and high blood sugar.
She said: “There is robust evidence that what’s good for the heart is also good for the brain.
“With many thinking about new year resolutions, I would urge people to consider some simple steps we can all take to stay brain healthy.”
THE 6 EARLY WARNING SIGNS
The NHS says: “Different types of dementia can affect people differently, and everyone will experience symptoms in their own way.
“However, there are some common early symptoms that may appear some time before a diagnosis of dementia.”
They include:
- Memory loss
- Difficulty concentrating
- Finding it hard to carry out familiar everyday tasks, such as getting confused over paying at the supermarket and counting change
- Struggling to find the right words or finding it hard to follow a conversation
- Being confused about the time and where you are
- Mood changes
PREVENTION
The Global Burden of Disease study is the first to provide forecasting estimates that apply to adults aged 40 and older across 195 countries worldwide.
Lead author Emma Nichols, from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, America, said: “We need to focus more on prevention and control of risk factors before they result in dementia.
“Even modest advances in preventing dementia or delaying its progression would pay remarkable dividends.”
She said the greatest impact would come from programmes that encourage people to eat healthier, exercise, stop smoking and improve access to education.
But Prof David Curtis, Honorary Professor, UCL Genetics Institute, said it is not clear this would have a large enough impact.
“Changes which could reduce risk of cerebrovascular dementia, such as improved diet and reduced smoking, would also lead to more people living long enough to develop Alzheimer’s disease,” he said.
“As the authors say, the findings underscore the need for research to find effective treatments for dementia, or better still to prevent it developing in the first place.”
Across the world, women with dementia outnumber men 100 to 69 - a trend set to stay the same.
READ MORE SUN STORIES
Co-author Dr Jaimie Steinmetz, from the IHME, said it wasn’t simply because women tend to live longer, but due to biological differences between the sexes.
The authors acknowledge their results may have been hampered by a lack of high-quality data in several parts of the world among other limitations.