RISK FACTOR
New fears your kids may be at greater risk of Omicron amid spike in hospitalisations
THERE are fears the Omicron variant is more severe in children than previous strains of the coronavirus.
Hospital admissions in children under five have suprisingly surged in South Africa, where the concerning variant is now dominating, doctors say.
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Graphs show the youngest children are being admitted in rates second only to those who are over 60.
Wassila Jassat, from the National Institute for Communicable Diseases,: "We've seen quite a sharp increase across all age groups, particularly in the under fives," referring to hospitalisations.
"The incidence in those under fives is now second-highest, and second only to the incidence in those over 60.”
There are also higher than normal hospital admissions in those aged 10 to 14 years old.
Medics stressed that it was early to know if children were particularly susceptible to the new super variant, which has instilled fear across the globe.
It could be that the trend is a result of vaccines not being offered to kids under 12, with barely any young adults being invited for the jab, either.
But Prof Christina Pagel, a mathematician and professor of operational research at University College London, said it could be a true indicator something has "changed" in the virus, and that was "potentially a big issue we need to face up to".
She told The Sun: "It's not about the vaccination programme for two reasons; They haven't vaccinated many people in South Africa [of all ages], and it's not more children compared to adult.
"It's more children in this wave compared to the previous wave. They are seeing far more children in hospital than before.
"Obviously their population is a lot different to the UK’s and we know poverty causes a lot more problems for under 5 years olds.
"So we don't know what will happen when it becomes dominant in a rich country.
"But it is worrying. Something has changed about the virus that is now affecting children under five, and we don't know what it is."
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At the briefing, Ms Jassat said: “We’ve always seen children not being heavily affected by Covid in the past, not having many admissions.
“In the third wave we saw more admissions in children and teenagers aged 15-19. Now, at the start of the fourth wave, we've seen quite a sharp increase across all age groups, but particularly under 5s.
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“As expected the incidence is still lowest in children.
“The trend that we are seeing now, which is different to before, is a particular increase in admissions in children under five years.”
The medic compared hospital data in the city of Tshwane in the Gauteng province from the first two weeks of the third wave, in May 2021, to the first two weeks of this so-called fourth wave.
She said in the third wave, most admissions were in older people, particularly in their 50s and 60s.
“However, in the fourth wave you can see most admissions are in younger people under 40 years, and a particularly stark difference in the 0-4 group where there were very few admissions in the early part of the third wave,” Ms Jassat said.
She said there had been more than 100 admissions in children under four in Tshwane in only the first couple of weeks of this wave.
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The experts on the news briefing said there are indications that Omicron does spread faster than Delta, highlighting the sheer spike in case numbers recently.
NICD's head of public health Michelle Groome said: "Preliminary data suggests Omicron is more transmissible and has some immune evasion.”
Between November 16 and December 2, the average daily infections in South Africa went from 330 per day to 4,800.
On December 2, a staggering 11,535 cases were reported - much sooner than the 10,000 predicted by Sunday and up from 8,500 the previous day.
Genetic sequencing shows that 75 per cent of cases are caused by the Omicron variant, when last month 92 per cent of cases were Delta.
Most of the surge is being driven by cases in Gauteng, the province where Johannesburg and the capital Pretoria are located.
The first cluster of cases centred around university students in the area, and then spread quickly among young people.
Ms Groome said the infections were now spilling into the older and more vulnerable age groups, who have been offered vaccines.
Although generally patients are showing milder symptoms, Ms Groome cautioned that the onset of serious illness would only be expected over the coming two weeks.
She revealed that the R rate in Gauteng is currently around 2.3. Anything over the value of 1 means the outbreak is growing.
For comparison, the UK’s R rate is currently no higher than 1.1. The highest recorded was 1.6 in October 2020, but was likely near 2 in March 2020.
HERD IMMUNITY A ‘PIPE DREAM’
South African scientists on Thursday reported that the reinfections were three times as likely with Omicron, compared to the Delta or Beta strains.
Experts said it was the first piece of evidence that Omicron can dodge immunity built by prior infection.
Although South Africa’s vaccination rate is poor, with 25 per cent of the population double jabbed, many of the population have got natural immunity from previous Covid waves.
However, experts said the latest evidence suggests “herd immunity” is not a strong enough defense against new, emerging variants.
Prof Paul Hunter, Professor in Medicine, The Norwich School of Medicine, University of East Anglia, said: “The implications of this paper are that Omicron will be able to overcome natural and probably vaccine induced immunity to a significant degree. But, the degree is still unclear…
“Even if protection against severe disease is maintained, if case numbers increase dramatically then the pressure on hospitals will also probably rise.
“It remains the case that the extra value of the booster vaccination dose remains the most important step that we can take to reduce the probability of severe disease.”
Dr Simon Clarke, Associate Professor in Cellular Microbiology, University of Reading, said: “This set of real world data on the ability of the Omicron variant provide us with the first indication that it is indeed able to evade immunity conferred by previous Covid-19 infection.
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“Omicron has blown a big hole in the controversial argument that we should simply allow the infection to spread in an attempt to create immunity.
“Herd immunity which now seems like nothing more than a pipe dream.”
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