New variant ‘could already by in the UK’ amid fears vaccines are 40% less effective, expert warns

THE new Covid variant, that could weaken vaccine protection by 40 per cent, could potentially already be in the UK.

UK health chiefs say the new strain, centred in south African countries, is the “most worrying and complex” seen yet.

It is the most evolved so far with 50 mutations, 32 of which are of particular concern, and could be worse than Delta, experts have warned.

The variant has only been found in five countries so far – but its power has sparked a sudden ban on flights from six nations to the UK.

The variant, scientifically called B.1.1.529, has not yet been confirmed in the UK as of yet.

But Dr Susan Hopkins, chief medical adviser at the UK Health Security Agency, said it was “always possible”.

With up to 700 people flying in from South Africa per day, it cannot be ruled out.

The Health Secretary Sajid Javid has warned the variant “poses a substantial risk” to the public and it’s “highly likely” it’s spread to other countries.

He told MPs in the Commons today:

• Health bosses have branded it a “Variant Under Investigation of high priority” – the first time such a label has been used.
• Early indications show the current vaccines “may be less effective against it” and that it “may be more transmissible than the Delta variant”.
• One of the UK’s major medicines to treat sick Covid patients may not work as well against the variant.
• Some 80 per cent of positive tests in the Gauteng province of South Africa show evidence of the variant, which may explain the countries “exponential growth” in infections.

Today the head of the Covid-19 Genomics UK Consortium said it is likely Britain will face the variant, but efforts to buy time and reduce transmission would help.

“I think buying time is important and it’s worthwhile, because we can find out what we need to know about that particular variant,” Sharon Peacock said.

“This is part of important planning and preparation for something that I would guess is likely to be transmitted into the UK at some point, but it buys that time.”

Scientists say the “horrific” new variant is “better at infecting vaccinated people” – but the extent to which will not be clear for weeks.

Some experts compared it to the Beta variant, which originated in South Africa in late 2020, which saw vaccine efficacy reduced by 30 to 40 per cent.

South Africa has seen a leap in Covid cases in recent days, with infection of the variant tripling since it was first found.

But scientists were not aware of the strain until November 23, with cases now found in South Africa, Botswana and Hong Kong.

The infection in Hong Kong was found in a person travelling from South Africa – sparking fears it could be taken elsewhere.

Today the strain was confirmed in a person from Israel who had travelled from Malawi, suggesting there is already spread through Africa.

Dr Hopkins said the R rate in the Gauteng province of South Africa, where the variant has clustered, had jumped to 2.

She said it was “really quite high” and similar to what would have been in the UK before the first lockdown in March 2020.

CONCERNING CASES

Speaking to BBC Radio 4’s Today Programme, Dr Hopkins said: “The first look at it shows it has a variety of different mutations, it’s got 30 different mutations that seem relevant, that’s double what we had in Delta.

“And if you look at those mutations as mutations that increase infectivity, mutations that evades the immune response, both from vaccines and natural immunity, mutations that cause increased transmissibility, it’s a highly complex mutation.

“There’s new ones [mutations] we haven’t seen before, so we don’t know how they’re going to interact in common.

“So all of this makes it a pretty complex, challenging variant and I think we will need to learn a lot more about it before we can say for definite its definitely the most complex variant before.”

Less than 100 cases in total have been detected so far, but due to it’s complex mutations it has concerned experts.

Prof Sharon Peacock, Director of COG-UK Genomics UK Consortium, said initial observations suggest the variant can “outcompete Delta – the ‘fittest’ variant we have seen to date”.

 

Mr Javid, who announced flight suspensions last night, said: “Our scientists are deeply concerned about this variant. I’m concerned, of course, that’s one of the reasons we have taken this action today.”

He added: “The early indication we have of this variant is it may be more transmissible than the Delta variant and the vaccines that we currently have may be less effective against it.

“Now to be clear, we have not detected any of this new variant in the UK at this point in time.

“But we’ve always been clear that we will take action to protect the progress that we have made.”

Asked what the situation would mean for the UK over the coming weeks, with Christmas less than one month away, Mr Javid said: “We’ve got plans in place, as people know, for the spread of this infection here in the UK and we have contingency plans – the so-called Plan B.“

Professor James Naismith, director of the Rosalind Franklin Institute, told BBC Radio 4’s Today Programme the new variant will “almost certainly” make the vaccines less effective.

SCIENTISTS’ BIGGEST FEARS

He said the variant, which appears to be an offshoot of an older variant called B.1.1, “looks like it spreads more quickly but we do not know that”.

However, Prof Naismith added despite the “bad news” it is “not doomsday” as the UK has got better at controlling the virus.

Professor Tulio de Oliveir, director of Covid surveillance in a South African province, warned it could be in nearly every area of the country.

He said the variant might be better at infecting vaccinated people than Delta, the current global dominant strain, as it has five times more mutations on a specific part that antibodies bind to.

The expert added it had a “very unusual constellation of mutations” and was a “reason for concern”.

South Africa’s Health Minister Joe Phaahla described the variant as “a major threat”.

Prof Francois Balloux, Professor of Computational Systems Biology and Director, UCL Genetics Institute, UCL, said: “I would definitely expect it to be poorly recognised by neutralising antibodies relative to Alpha or Delta.  

“It is difficult to predict how transmissible it may be at this stage.

“For the time being, it should be closely monitored and analysed, but there is no reason to get overly concerned, unless it starts going up in frequency in the near future.”

[It’s a] very unusual constellation of mutations.

Professor Tulio de Oliveir

But some experts have suggested the multiple mutations might actually work against the virus and cause it to be unstable.

If it is both better at escaping vaccines and faster spreading it could cause problems, but experts have urged caution as it’s monitored.

Dr Tom Peacock, a virologist at Imperial College, tweeted about the find – saying it was the first time he had seen two particular mutations in one variant.

The expert described the mutation profile of the coronavirus as “really awful”.

He added: “Export to Asia implies this might be more widespread than sequences alone would imply.

“Also the extremely long branch length and incredibly high amount of spike mutations suggest this could be of real concern (predicted escape from most known monoclonal antibodies).

“Worth emphasising this is at super low numbers right now in a region of Africa that is fairly well sampled, however it very very much should be monitored due to that horrific spike profile (would take a guess that this would be worse antigenically than nearly anything else about).”

‘REALLY AWFUL’

Professor Lawrence Young, a virologist at Warwick Medical School, it “looks like” the variant could be better at dodging immunity from vaccines.

But he added: “It’s always difficult to say just by looking at [mutations], and so much depends on how the immune system sees the change and responds.

‘But it looks like just because of the severe load of [mutations] — some of which we know about quite a bit in terms of harming transmission — it looks like it might be slightly more worrying than the South African variant.”

The new variant has mutations K417N and E484A that are linked to those in previous strains that were able to dodge vaccines.

And it also has the N440K, found on Delta, and S477N, on the New York variant, linked to antibody escape. 

It also has the mutation N501Y that makes viruses more transmissible and was previously seen on the fast-spreading Alpha variant.

New variants are found fairly often, and mostly don’t spread over a cluster of cases.

If they are in a country with a more dominant variant they can quickly die out.

Dr Meera Chand, Covid-19 Incident Director at the UKHSA, said: The UK Health Security Agency, in partnership with scientific bodies across the globe, is constantly monitoring the status of SARS-CoV-2 variants as they emerge and develop worldwide.

“As it is in the nature of viruses to mutate often and at random, it is not unusual for small numbers of cases to arise featuring new sets of mutations.

“Any variants showing evidence of spread are rapidly assessed.