WINTER WARNER
Fears face masks, working from home and Covid vaccine passports could return No10 hints ahead of ‘challenging winter’
FACE masks, working from home and vaccine passports could be set to return if Covid cases continue to rise.
Downing Street warned of a "challenging winter" as infections rose to their highest level in three months yesterday.
3
Experts also fear the Government's Covid booster programme is moving too slowly to prevent the winter wave.
Professor Neil Ferguson, from Imperial College London, said it's "critical" we speed up boosters and jab teenagers to block infection and transmission.
And Sir David King, the Government's chief scientific adviser from 2000 to 2007, slammed the pace of the rollout as going "extremely slowly".
Prof Ferguson added: "First of all, we have lower functional immunity in our population than most other Western European countries and that's for two reasons," he said.
"Partly, we were very successful in getting vaccination rolled out early and we know that gradually immunity wanes over time after you've had that second dose, so how early we were means we are a bit more vulnerable.
"Second, we relied more on the AstraZeneca vaccine and, while that protects very well against very severe outcomes of Covid, it protects slightly less well than Pfizer against infection and transmission, particularly in the face of the Delta variant.
Most read in Health
"And finally, we just sit behind a few other countries, not dramatically, but we're no longer in the top rank of European countries in terms of overall vaccination coverage, particularly vaccinating teenagers."
Last month Boris Johnson set out a Plan B for further restrictions – including masks, vaccine passports and working from home in case the virus surged.
Mr Johnson has not yet confirmed a threshold for triggering the plan, but experts fear the situation is worsening.
At the start of the booster campaign Health Secretary Sajid Javid said the aim of the programme had been to ensure that the most vulnerable were protected.
But John Roberts, of the Covid-19 Actuaries Response Group said that it's more likely to be the end of January before all of the 22 million vulnerable people get their booster shots.
As it stands around 3.7 million of the 8.3 million eligible Brits have so far had their booster shots.
Dr Hillary revealed his concern for the NHS earlier today on Good Morning Britain.
He said: "We do have a problem, right now in the UK with 50, 000 new cases reported yesterday - 300k in the week before this one, which is a rise of 15 per cent.
"It's the highest since July of this year. We have also seen a rise of hospitalisations - 915 people hospitalised yesterday.
"So we will need to have a look at what plan we are going to adopt this winter.
";We are in crisis in the NHS right now with a very difficult winter approaching."
WINTER IS COMING
As the winter months continue, immunity in the older and vulnerable age groups will continue to wain and it's advised that booster shots are given six months after their second dose of the jab.
The Government is now keeping "a very close watch" on the latest statistics.
The PM's official spokesman said: "There is absolutely no plan to introduce Plan B currently. We retain that capability if required if we believe the NHS is coming under unsustainable pressure.
"We obviously keep very close watch on the latest statistics. We always knew the coming months would be challenging."
Booster jabs are currently being used to bolster immunity in the most vulnerable of society, who got their first two jabs several months ago.
The third shots are the heart of the Government’s plan A for Covid during winter.
But data show the majority of at-risk people have not yet had their additional jab, and may not for several more weeks or months into the winter.
Professor Andrew Hayward, a member of Sage, told Radio 4's World At One programme: "We shouldn't be complacent because there is still huge potential for the NHS to come under a lot of pressure and for there to be a lot of unnecessary deaths.
We obviously keep very close watch on the latest statistics. We always knew the coming months would be challenging.
10 Downing Street
"So we need to get the vaccination rates up and we need to be prepared potentially to think about other measures if things do get out of control."
The NHS says people will be invited for their booster jab at least six months on from their second dose, when the effects are thought to start wearing off.
It means only those who got their second dose in mid-April or earlier are being invited at the moment.
Professor Ravi Gupta, a member of the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag), is one expert calling for the Government’s plan B to be implemented now.
And Martin McKee, professor of public health at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said England “should immediately be activating” plan B.
Prof Ferguson - whose scientific modelling led to the March 2020 lockdown - said recent modelling suggested that if booster uptake was high enough and the rollout was fast enough, additional measures might not be necessary.
But he added that if cases continued to rise over the next two weeks, “then clearly I’m sure the government will be re-evaluating the measures in place”.
3
Andrew Preston, a professor of microbial pathogenesis at the University of Bath thinks “a return to restrictions that hit economic activity” - like lockdowns - is unlikely.
But he added: “It wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see mask wearing return to mandatory in some situations.
Dr Nikki Kanani, GP and Deputy Lead for the NHS Covid-19 Vaccination Programme, said the response so far had been “fantastic”.
But experts fear it may not be fast enough to offset falling immunity in the population.
Data from the ZOE Covid Symptom Study found after six months, protection from the Pfizer vaccine fell to 74 per cent, and the AstraZeneca jab to 67 per cent.
The lead of the study, Professor Tim Spector, told The Sun the vaccine programme was "flagging" and "not keeping up with demand for boosters and getting above 67 percent vaccinated".
This, coupled with dropping all Covid measures in the summer, is causing the UK to have higher cases and hospitalisations than the rest of Europe, he said.
Duncan Robertson, of Warwick University, says that delays in boosting will have to be “resolved immediately” to avoid unnecessary pressures on the NHS.
“Booster vaccinations are there to prevent hospitalisations and ultimately to save lives. Delays matter,” he told .
Azeem Majeed, professor of primary care at Imperial College London, said a lower uptake of third doses was "inevitable", adding: "People were initially told that two doses were enough. They were in lockdown, and the vaccine was their ticket out of it."
Prof Preston, a professor of microbial pathogenesis at the University of Bath, suggested it did not matter that everyone who should get a third shot won't get it before winter starts.
But he said “our early roll out of vaccination means immunity will wane earlier than other countries”.
He also warned: “The high infectivity of Delta means that more people will be resusceptible to infection when their immunity wanes, compared to Alpha.
“We see that in the data where vaccination protects against infection by perhaps 60 per cent compared to high 80’s for Alpha.”
Prof Preston also raised concerns of the proportion of unvaccinated people in the UK - around 15 per cent of adults have not had their first dose.
“Even at 40,000 cases a day affecting only those, that would take 150 days to infect all," Prof Preston said.
“The slow roll out of vaccination to teenagers has allowed high numbers of infections in that age group.”
UNDER PRESSURE
Mr Javid urged “all those eligible for a top-up dose to get yours as soon as possible”.
Vaccines Minister Maggie Throup said: “Everyone eligible should not delay in getting their jab as soon as they can.”
The concerns surrounding the jabs roll out comes as more and more NHS trusts are facing pressure as we head into the winter months.
It was yesterday revealed the NHS Grampian in Scotland had called the military in to help with Covid and staff shortages.
The request from Grampian comes after it was revealed that Lanarkshire and the Borders would also receive military help.
While the army has been called in in Scotland, in Lancashire it has been revealed that patients are currently waiting almost 50 hours for a bed in A&E.
The government need to recognise the potential crisis and support the health and care service as it tackles the challenges ahead
Dr Katherine Henderson
The Royal Preston Hospital in Lancashire is struggle to cope under the pressure with patients dealing with lengthy waits, has reported.
It's not just a situation that is being seen in the North and in Suffolk patients have reported waiting over 48 hours for care.
One expert warned that there was already a 'crisis' underway when it comes to bed occupancy.
President of The Royal College of Emergency Medicine, Dr Katherine Henderson said: "The winter presents a significant challenge for the health service.
"Staff are increasingly worried about the NHS’ ability to cope. The government need to recognise the potential crisis and support the health and care service as it tackles the challenges ahead.”
READ MORE SUN STORIES
Professor Andrew Hayward, a member of Sage, told Radio 4's World At One programme that the NHS still has the potential to come under a lot of pressure.
He added: "So we need to get the vaccination rates up and we need to be prepared potentially to think about other measures if things do get out of control."
3
Dr Hilary Jones concerned by rise in Covid deaths as cases soar but people with booster jabs are 'much more protected'
We pay for your stories!
Do you have a story for The Sun news desk?
Email us at [email protected] or call 02077824104. You can WhatsApp us on 07423 720 250. We pay for videos too. Click here to upload yours
Topics