Epsom Derby Festival betting tips for day two
THE ONE you have all been waiting for, the 2024 Epsom Derby.
So much has been made of this race through one horse, and one horse only, City Of Troy.
From his apparent height, to the has he has not trained on argument, he has been the talk of the town.
Come 4:30 on Saturday, June 1st and we will all find out if the talk has been warranted.
Now, before we delve into the Derby, I have two selections who I think will bring us profit for the day.
As much as I want to put up something for the Epsom Dash, you are better off putting a pin in the racing paper and hoping for the best as anything can happen as we saw last season when some of the stalls opened before the rest did.
That's unlikely to happen again, but it is easier to pick the winner of the Grand National than the Epsom Dash. If you like to place your bets, check out these reputable horse racing betting sites.
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Epsom 2:00 – Group 3 1m 1½f Princess Elizabeth Stakes
Running Lion, a filly that comes here with a good strike rate of 4 wins from 10 starts, but the last of those wins came back in May of 2023. You could argue that ever since her last win she has been underwhelming considering the potential that she showed at the beginning of her career.
Is it a case that her progression has plateaued because she was yet again beaten on her comeback at Newmarket?
She is entitled to come on from that run, but from a win prospect, I will take her on with Sparks Fly.
Unlike Running Lion, Sparks Fly had a low-key start to her career, and it took her 6 goes to get off the mark. But when she finally got her head in front she turned into a winning machine.
From her first win to her last run, she has competed in 11 races, winning 8, in so taking her mark from 59 to 106.
She made her comeback at Haydock in April, and it was a run that suggested that the progression has not stopped. Bang there until the last half furlong where she faded out of it into 5th. Considering she was burdened with the top weight of 9st 12lb that day, it was a great comeback.
Her best form has come with a bit of dig in the ground, but she has winning form on good to soft, so underfoot conditions should not be an issue.
Given how she likes to get on with things, Epsom might well play to her strengths. If they give her too much rope, then they may be found wanting when push comes to shove.
This could be a massive opportunity for Sparks Fly to gain her first group success.
- Selection: Sparks Fly 5/1
- Danger: Running Lion 2/1
Current Odds:
- Running Lion 2/1
- Sparks Fly 5/1
- Breege 7/1
- Sea Of Thieves 10/1
- Chic Colombine 12/1
- 12/1 bar
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Epsom 2:35 – Group 3 1m 1½f Betfred Diomed Stakes
An open Group 3 here with the favouite Maljoom coming in on the back of a nice comeback run at Ascot, and Embesto who carry's the same colours sits here as second favouite, but was a disappointing last time out.
Sent off 2/1 for the Group 3 Earl Of Sefton Stakes at Newmarket, Embesto could only manage a 5th place finish with the reposing and last year's winner of this race Regal Reality in front of him by over 2 lengths.
For me, he has a lot to prove coming in here on the back of that, and the one I will be siding with is last year's second, Highland Avenue.
He was sent off 2/1 for last season's renewal but got outstayed by Regal Reality who came late and fast. If they had ridden him with a bit more restraint last season, he could have held one.
Back here on home soil after a winter away in the middle east where he was used as a pacemaker for most of his time over there, this could be his day to shine.
He loves to get on with things, but if William Buick can conserve some of that energy for the final furlong, then I believe he has enough to go one better than last season.
- Selection: Highland Avenue 6/1
- Danger: Royal Scotsman 10/1
Current odds:
- Maljoom 7/2
- Embesto 5/1
- Highland Avenue 5/1
- Regal Reality 6/1
- Witch Hunter 6/1
- 10/1 bar
🐎 Bet on the Betfred Diomed Stakes with Coral 🐎
Epsom 4:30 – Group 1 1m4f Betfred Derby
Here we go, the 2024 Epsom Derby where careers can be made, and dreams shattered.
There is only one place to start and that is with City Of Troy.
Touted as the second coming after his breathtaking 2-year-old season, but the second coming could only finish third last in the 2000 Guineas when sent off 4/6 clear favourite.
There has been a lot of talk about his height, has he trained on, did Aidan leave him short for a Classic (I highly doubt it) and so much more. But the gloss has faded well and truly from this once superstar.
The betting is now starting to tell its own story.
As of right now City Of Troy is out to as big as 7/2 and might well be overtaken by stablemate Los Angeles who there has been a lot of support for over the past few days.
Is there a price where City Of Troy becomes a backable price, or is it a case of you just cannot back him after what happened at Newmarket? I am the latter. I cannot back him after what I saw in the Guineas. I like all was hoping for a Frankel like performance.
You can say he will come on from that or there was something amiss. But nothing has come out suggesting that something was amiss, I just believe he has not trained on.
Why is that you may ask. Well, the simple opinion of that to me is he looks like he has not progressed from 2 to 3 based on what we saw at Newmarket.
Unlike Auguste Rodin who also bombed out in the Guineas last season and went on to win the Derby, City Of Troy does not process the same frame and build that Auguste Rodin has.
Auguste Rodin is by Deep Impact whose progeny progresses with age, while City Of Troy is by Justify who has outstanding 2-year-olds, but very few take a big step forward from that.
If you get a chance have a look at Justify’s record and it will speak for itself. With all that against City Of Troy, it is crazy that he is favourite right now.
If Ancient Wisdom was not drawn in stall 11, then he quite possibly would be shading it from my selection, but he is hindered by the fact that no one has ever won the Derby from stall 11.
So, the one who I like is Los Angeles.
Quite possibly the most good-looking horse in training, Los Angles is quietly backing up the looks with wins.
This big strapping son of Camelot is 3 from 3, and had a nice comeback win when taking the Derby Trial at Leopardstown. That performance can be marked up considering the majority of Aidans will come on for their run.
Unlike City Of Troy there is nothing flash about how he gets the job done. He puts his head down and once he hits the front; he just keeps the rest a bay.
This is a trait I love in a middle to long distance racehorses on the flat, ones that conserve energy throughout.
I have no doubt that the extra two furlongs will bring about even more improvement, and I would not be shocked if he were sent off the clear favourite here.
The percentage call is with Los Angles at 4/1.
- Selection: Los Angles 4/1
- Danger: Ancient Wisdom 11/2
Current odds:
- City Of Troy 10/3
- Los Angles 4/1
- Ancient Wisdom 11/2
- Ambiente Friendly 7/1
- Dancing Gemini 12/1
- 14/1 bar
🐎 Bet on the Epsom Derby with LeoVegas🐎
About the author
Andrew Halligan
My name is Andrew Halligan, horse racing pundit and founder of YouTube's . Horse racing is a thrilling spectacle that captivates audiences around the world with its blend of drama and excitement. Whether you're a jumps or flat fan, I will use my experience of working within the horse racing industry to bring the best of what this sport has to offer.
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